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Global Updates

April 20, 2015 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda, Big Brother, Big Government, Department of Defense, Department of State, Domestic Terrorism, Drought, Energy Security, Food and Water, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIS, Military Industrial Complex, New Cold War, Obama, Police State, Politics, Survival Gardening, Syria, Terrorism One comment

In addition to my more in-depth posts, I will be routinely adding short bulletized points to keep our readers up to date on global issues. If you would like more details on a specific issue, please post to comments or email me directly at LMS.

April 20, 2015

US sending warships to “prevent” Iran from providing arms to Houthis in Yemen. The US has greatly contributed to the crisis in Yemen and engaging in a stand-off with Iran over support to each country’s respective proxies is a losing card for the White House to play. The US (aside from special interests) has nothing to gain from this conflict. The only possible winner will be AQAP (Al Qaeda). Yemen’s US backed “president” in exile will never be able to return to “effective” power after using foreign militaries to bomb and kill Yemeni civilians. Further, the Houthis, which pose no threat to the US will be weakened, but not pushed from power. The US will no doubt dupe itself into another disastrous conflict. The end result will be prolonging the chaos in Yemen and AQAP gaining significantly more power. Just as I warned, the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Qatar in Syria would eventually engulf the entire region and turn hot. If the US policy in Yemen was to create greater Middle East conflict, empower Islamic extremism, and further destabilize global oil markets, it has achieved its objectives.
US arrests suspects attempting to join ISIL. The US acts as though this was a great crime fighting/anti-terrorism win; however, it is a sign of deeper problems that have been self-inflicted. Minnesota in particular is a hot bed of Islamic activity because of the suicidal domestic immigration policies that favor and actually import tens of thousands of people into the US annually from countries known for radical Islamism such as Somalia. In short, it is a self fulfilling prophecy that has been used to justify an unnecessary domestic spy/police state and draconian legislation such as the “Patriot Act.”
Iraqi military backed by US and Iran fails to retake key cities from ISIL. Contrary to rosy claims by the Obama Administration, the Iraqi Army has only scored marginal victories against what appears to be a far more dynamic and better led ISIL force. Specifically, government forces were able to seize some key areas around Tikrit, but have so far failed to effectively secure the city. Further, while the Iraqi military was focused north in Tikrit, ISIL has appeared to have shifted its fighting strength to the Ramadi area where it has gained ground in recent weeks. As predicted, the violence and bloodshed in Iraq will continue and grow as long as the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to burn. As one side gains ground, the other side will bolster its support for its proxy until the conflict has grown so big and so violent it will directly involve its original sponsors. The end result will be a disaster for both the Middle East and the US.
Drought in California continues at record levels. If you haven’t planted a large garden this year, plan to pay more…a lot more, at the grocery store. As warned in previous articles last winter, food prices have continued to rise. This price inflation isno where near at its peak with beef prices skyrocketing. The conditions that continue to cause price hikes will persist. Crops largely grown in California will see some of the largest spikes such as nuts and lettuces.
- http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/19/californias-water-shortage-will-lead-to-a-spike-in-food-prices-and-economic-peril/
- http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/the-impending-food-price-crisis-time-to-plant-your-survival-garden/
- http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/02/24/feds-withhold-water-to-california-farmers-for-first-time-in-54-years/
High taxes and over regulation finally ruining Virginia. Northern Virginia, an area historically known for its strong economy and growing population has begun to feel the pressure of increasingly socialist governmental policies. Naturally, the region draws on people working for the federal government and the big bureaucracy mindset has metastasized across the Potomac into the Commonwealth of Virginia. High taxes, oppressive regulations, and stifling over population have all been the result. This caustic bureaucratic recipe has led to a fed up population that is now leaving in droves. Ironically, many of these people leaving were responsible at the ballot boxes for the socialist turn in governance. Perhaps they learned their lesson and will not repeat their same mistake in the future, but that is doubtful. As the population growth levels out and then begins to drop, local governments will soon realize budget deficits are growing and they are unable to provide the services originally programmed. Without undoing what has become a socialist style of governance in the enclave, Northern Virginiais doomed to double down on its current failures and create another communist utopia on the banks of the Potomac.
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/washington-area-population-increase-slowing-down-census-figures-indicate/2015/04/19/34683ab0-d7b5-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

By Guiles Hendrik

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

April 2, 2015 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda, Danger Alerts!, Department of Defense, Department of State, Exclusive Story, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIS, Israel, Military, Military Industrial Complex, News and Intelligence, Obama, Oil and Gas, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism Comments Off

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option. I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up. In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace. Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US. Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary. Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty. In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US. Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war, but not why you think: Part 1

March 26, 2015 Last Minute Survival 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Department of Defense, Department of State, Energy Security, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIS, Israel, Military, Military Industrial Complex, New Cold War, Obama, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism, Uncategorized Comments Off

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva, Switzerland, in January. Kerry will meet again with Zarif this weekend in the Swiss capital as March deadline approaches. (Keystone/ Martial Trezzini/file/Associated Press)

Over the last decade, I have produced many papers and articles analyzing events in the Middle East and their geopolitical impact for academia, commercial publications, think tanks, and government agencies. I stand by my track record as one of the most prescient in the business. To that end, predicting chaos in the Middle East has been easy, but combining the what (violence) with the who, when, why, and how are the far more demanding predictions. One the worst case scenarios for a broad outbreak of violence in the Middle East has been the possibility of a major war between Israel and Iran. This conflict would immediately go regional with the on-going proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia pulling in the remaining Middle Eastern countries. Once it goes regional, it will be nearly impossible for the U.S., Europe, and Russia to remain on the sidelines. I have described in detail how this would likely play out as well as how it could be prevented in previous posts (see a partial list below). I am writing today again with a dire warning for anyone willing to listen. The most recent events occurring across the Middle East are now signaling the worst case scenario of a major conflict with Iran will come to pass as I have previously predicted. This first article discusses why war with Iran is unnecessary and must be avoided. Part II will discuss why even with an Iranian deal, war is inevitable and the dire consequences we can expect. Read more

The US defeat in Afghanistan and its inevitable consequences

March 1, 2015 Last Minute Survival Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Global War, Taliban Comments Off

From the beginning, we considered Afghanistan the more difficult war…it will be so even after we retreat. The longest war in American history is coming to a close as an indecisive strategic defeat for the US and NATO just as I predicted over a decade ago. The war was fought against an enemy with an extremely low level of capability, but our generals refused to recognize the critical importance of stopping the enemy’s movement to and from its cross-border sanctuary even when presented with overwhelming analyses. Specifically, the failure of border security to be made a priority in the overall counterinsurgency strategy all but guaranteed the inevitable exhaustion and defeat of the occupation force. Embarrassingly, the hard truth is the “most powerful” and certainly the most expensive military in history failed to decisively defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The US/NATO defeat was not for lack of manpower or firepower, it was a defeat born of intellectual incompetence and utter dereliction by our senior leadership. Importantly, the critical failure responsible for the US/NATO defeat remains at the senior echelons within the US military and White House, is systemic, and remains uncorrected. Now, just like in Iraq, we are told by President Obama and his appointees that Afghans will take over operations and complete the mission. The chances of the Afghans defeating the Taliban are zero and we must be prepared for the inevitable consequences.

First, I want to support my certainty that most of Afghanistan will be overrun by the Taliban. To do this we need only to look at the current status of the war. To date, the combined power of the US and NATO has after 14 years proved unable to defeat the Taliban. However, we are told to believe by Obama and his generals that the Afghans, with a relative few Americans in support, will be capable of cleaning up the mess and decisively defeating the Taliban. The result of this is another easily predictable, preordained defeat. Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, simply will not be able to hold on to Kabul, much less the whole of Afghanistan, and will likely meet the same fate as his earlier predecessor Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai at the hands of the Taliban. Further, it is appearing more likely that this will not just be a Taliban victory, but may be completed under the unified banner of ISIL. Read more

Why No One Should Serve in the US Military: Your leaders are incompetent and your next Secretary of Defense is no exception.

February 5, 2015 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda, Congress, Department of Defense, ISIL, ISIS, Military, Obama, Terrorism Comments Off

The face of your next wartime leader…really?

As a combat veteran of the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq, I am going to be very blunt. Lives depend on being direct and the need for military personnel to come forward and tell the truth. In fact, it is chilling that no one has called out the insanity taking place before our very eyes within the ranks of the military. The senior military leadership is incompetent to lead. Our failures in both Iraq and Afghanistan bare this out. Today’s testimony by the soon to be next Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter should make it blatantly clear that no one should consider joining our military. For current active duty and reserve members, run for the door and get the hell out as soon as your obligations allow. Read more

Debunking 9/11 Conspiracies: Did a plane really hit the Pentagon?

January 21, 2015 Last Minute Survival 9/11, Al Qaeda, Big Brother, Conspiracy Theories, Domestic Terrorism, Exclusive Story, Terrorism Comments Off

Researching issues over the years, I have found that it is not uncommon to find the real story intentionally buried or covered up. False flags are real and conspiracies exist everywhere. What occurred on the day of September 11, 2001 is no exception. As such, I ask, is it possible to conclusively put some of these theories to rest? Specifically, did a plane actually hit the Pentagon the morning of September 11, 2001? Being that I was en route to the Pentagon the morning of the attack and heard the explosion and saw the plume of black smoke, but didn’t personally witness the plane hit the building, I questioned the narrative as well. Nonetheless, I have always seen this conspiracy theory as one of the easiest to either validate or debunk and wondered how a conspiracy like this could fester seemingly unanswered for so long and decided to research it. The result of my research, to date, debunks the theory that a plane did not hit the Pentagon. I understand that some people will only believe their narrative of events no matter how much evidence you put before them. That said, I could probably never 100% rule out a conspiracy without actually witnessing it all with my own eyes. However, I am comfortable knowing that between the natural inept nature of government operations, the government’s inability to keep secrets secret, and the already highly improbable string of events woven together to create an alternative reality is so far beyond the realm of sane probability as compared to what eye witnesses, physical, and photographic evidence testify to, this conspiracy is busted. Read more

Torture is coming to a police precinct near you

January 9, 2015 Last Minute Survival 9/11, Al Qaeda, Constitution, Department of Defense, Exclusive Story, Global War, Justice Department, Liberty and Freedom, Military, Obama, Police State, Resistance to Tyranny, Second Amendment / Gun Control, Terrorism Comments Off

The reality is that where torture is condoned, depraved sociopaths run wild.

It is should be no question that I am a staunch supporter and advocate for liberty, freedom, and civil rights. Why anyone would not desire a society where these fundamental pillars of a civilized existence are protected is baffling. However, after the Senate released its report on the CIA’s use of enhanced interrogation techniques, it started a short lived firestorm of controversy over torture. Disturbingly many of you thought the use of torture was justified. Irrespective of your personal views, the fact is that torture, including the full spectrum of enhance interrogation techniques, is entirely illegal under both US and international law. Both Presidents Bush and Obama have violated this law and those party to the decision to authorize the use of torture must be brought to justice. What I am here to tell you is irrespective of whether or not you believe it was necessary, useful, or just, the condoning of this activity establishes a legal precedent for torture to be used against you right here at home. If torture is allowed to become acceptable, you will soon find yourself on the wrong side of the religion of political correctness getting tortured until you amend your beliefs and sell out your friends and family. Read more

NATO Declares War in Afghanistan Over!…But forgets to inform the Taliban

January 6, 2015 Last Minute Survival Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Congress, Department of Defense, Department of State, Exclusive Story, Global War, Military, Military Industrial Complex, News and Intelligence, Obama, Politics, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism One comment

After over a decade of fighting, the Afghan War ends in strategic defeat for the US and NATO

On December 28, 2014, the US and NATO declared an end to the mission and therefore the war in Afghanistan. A Taliban statement from Zabihullah Mujahidon, a Taliban spokesman, left no doubt to how it was interpreted according to Reuters.

“ISAF rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without having achieved anything substantial or tangible.”

Washington may not like the statement and downplay it, but it doesn’t change the reality that the statement is accurate. Not so ironically, the US and NATO have been mute over the success of the war. No celebrations, no parades, no victory speeches…the absence of all of this should signal that our leaders know it was a failure. In fact, not only did the combined force of NATO and the US not achieve a decisive victory over the Taliban, they suffered a strategic defeat. Read more

Update on the Third Iraq War against ISIL/ISIS/IS/AQ/Syria/etc.

November 18, 2014 Last Minute Survival Department of Defense, Global War, ISIL, ISIS, Military, Military Industrial Complex, News and Intelligence, Obama, Terrorism Comments Off

US Advisors in Iraq begin training. Source dw.de/Getty/Afp

It should come as no shock to our readers that the Third Iraq War President Obama initiated has already faltered. As predicted, the strategy (or lack thereof see: http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/10/11/islamic-extremism-and-what-lies-ahead-part-ii-the-war-on-isis-and-syria/) did not achieve the desired results so now the Department of Defense (DoD), no doubt testing the waters for the White House, is requesting boots on the ground. As we warned, mission creep is a dangerous thing and would plague this operation. What started with just a handful of “advisors,” grew into airstrikes in Iraq and then Syria, then over a thousand troops “on the ground,” and now US troop levels in Iraq will soon reach 3,000. When this new batch of advisors fails to stop the growth of ISIL, expect Obama to retract another “promise” and have “no choice,” but to commit US combat personnel to the fight in Iraq. Soon, just like in Vietnam, Obama will be steadily sucked into another full blown war in Iraq that the US will neither win nor be able to afford. Read more

George W. Bush was Still Wrong on Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq

November 3, 2014 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda, Department of Defense, Department of State, Global War, Iran, ISIL, Israel, Military, Military Industrial Complex, News and Intelligence, Obama, Politics, Syria, Terrorism Comments Off

I have warned for years that the Syrian Rebels and now ISIL have chemical weapons. However, that notion was dismissed repeatedly by the mainstream media until the State Department inadvertently admitted that ISIL used chemical weapons on the Kurds. Of course that major revelation caused at least a few people to raise the question of the origin of these said chemical weapons. Realizing a major scandal was about to erupt, the White House went into full damage control mode and immediately set about working with the New York Times to put out a story to redirect and mislead the public. The Times story claims ISIL’s chemical weapons came from undestroyed Iraqi stockpiles, which as I will show, is a patently false claim of historical revisionism. Read more

Bug Out Bags Part II: Washington, DC

October 17, 2014 Last Minute Survival Bug Out Bags, Bugging Out, Disaster Preparedness, Domestic Terrorism, Earthquakes, Ebola, Extreme Weather, Pandemic, Prepper Organization, Prepping, Self-Sufficiency, Special Skills, Survival Skills, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures, Terrorism Comments Off

For Part II in our series on bug out kits, I will look at some specifics for planning your kit if you happen to live in or around the nation’s capital. I chose to address DC first, because it is a city where the conditions that trigger bugging out are likely to occur and it offers some very specific challenges that are applicable to many urban centers across the US. Hopefully, you have had a chance to read my intro post on building your bug out kit. If not, first review thin information we posted at: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2014/10/13/location-specific-bug-out-bags-part-i/.

Why would you worry about having to bug out if you live in DC? Read more

Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part II: The War on ISIL and Syria

October 1, 2014 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda, Big Banks, Big Government, Congress, Constitution, Danger Alerts!, Department of Defense, Economy, Energy Security, Exclusive Story, Global War, Iran, ISIL, Military, Military Industrial Complex, News and Intelligence, Obama, Oil and Gas, Syria, Terrorism Comments Off

Airstrikes in Iraq

President Obama and his top military advisors have learned nothing and have made a grave mistake starting a war with Syria using ISIL as the pretext. Just as I was confident and proven correct that this situation would materialize, I am equally confident in my analysis that this new war will lead to America’s greatest foreign policy disaster to date. Neither war with Syrian nor ISIL will be decisive, successful, or lead to greater security for the American people. However, the war may indeed turn out to lead to America’s unwinding as the world’s sole superpower and economic bankruptcy. This post will continue my analysis on the on-going crisis unfolding in the Middle East respective of Obama’s newest war. Read more

THE NEXT 9/11: We are not prepared for how ISIL will use advanced military weapons to attack US targets

September 5, 2014 Last Minute Survival Danger Alerts!, News and Intelligence, Syria, Terrorism Comments Off

The Obama Administration has knowingly allowed ISIL to gain strength and capture more and more territory inside of Iraq and has set the stage for a second 9/11 style attack against US targets, which may in fact be the US Embassy Baghdad. The White House looked the other way for years because the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, in particular, were covertly arming, training, equipping, and advising elements of what it falsely believed was the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Syria. This organization of what became ISIL occurred at US sponsored bases in Jordan, Turkey, and now Syria proper. However, the FSA was in the complete control of Islamic extremists from an early stage (http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/09/09/media-missed-the-biggest-coup-in-the-middle-east-and-it-wasnt-in-egypt/). This CIA created rebel army then quickly grew too big for the CIA to control as many insiders warned would happen. As extremists took over the remaining “moderate” elements of the FSA, advanced weapons covertly provided to fight Assad, such as the US made Stinger missiles, were seized and retasked for the fight in Iraq. With the covert backing of the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, ISIL gained enough strength and organization to become a formidable light infantry army and capture large swaths of Sunni controlled areas of Iraq. This fight was originally justified as necessary to build a cross border sanctuary for the anti-Assad forces fighting in Syria, but in reality turned out to be the genesis of a new terrorist state. With the capture of territory that included Syrian and Iraqi military bases, ISIL fell into control of a large number of advanced military weapons that supercharged their fighting ability beyond what the CIA intended or could control. At this point, some advisors took refuge in that ISIL may not have the technical knowhow to maintain and fully operate systems such as fighter jets, air defense systems, and M1 Abrams tanks. However, this is a false logic that breeds a false sense of security because ISIL certainly has the skills to use these advanced weapons asymmetrically in attacks never before possible. The US national security establishment is simply not prepared to deal with this increased level of state-like terrorist organization. Read more

The O’Reilly “Fiction:” Setting the Factor Straight

July 2, 2014 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda Comments Off

Against my better judgment, I decided to watch a segment of “The O’Reilly Factor” on Fox News to hear his points on the latest developments in Iraq. In O’Reilly’s defense, he has been a brilliant talk show host and highly successful writer and businessman. However, at the end of the day, O’Reilly is still a journalist with limited real world expertise on many of the topics he provides commentary on. Specifically, O’Reilly poses as an expert, but is totally lacking in experience when it comes to matters of military application and foreign affairs. O’Reilly has never served in combat, is not an intelligence analyst, and so far has not demonstrated himself as a policy maker. So to no surprise, when I tuned in, O’Reilly was expounding his usual pompous, ill informed, bomb them all rhetoric with respect to the Islamic extremist army dubbed ISIL or ISIS. Within thirty seconds of listening to O’Reilly’s poorly informed diatribe, I remembered why I had stopped watching Fox. As such, I feel as though Fox News and Bill O’Reilly needed some better informed input to ensure Fox lives up to its “fair and balanced” moniker and openly challenge O’Reilly to a debate on Iraq policy.
First of all, I want to make it clear we lost in Iraq. Bill O’Reilly is still grasping to a false reality and believes we actually accomplished strategic objectives (won) in Iraq before our retreat. The fact the US was defeated is tough to deal with, but nonetheless fact. It in no way diminishes the honor of our veterans. Suggesting otherwise to those that cannot dissect honor from the success or failure of an army in battle is ridiculous. The notion that loss in battle or war dishonors our troops is no more logical than suggesting soldiers of losing armies across thousands of years of recorded history had no honor. For example, the many British army units fought with the utmost honor in the American Revolution, soldiers fighting for the Confederate Army during the American Civil War fought with great honor, and Rommel’s Afrika Corps has been distinguished again and again for its honor by historians, but all of the above armies ultimately lost their respective wars. In fact, honor is not hinged upon whether one wins or loses, but in how one conducts himself in combat. Iraq was never pacified and never made safe for Americans, but we maintained our honor. The US certainly isn’t calling the shots across the nation now. The end state achieved was a strategic setback for US interests across the region by strengthening our foes. No matter how much the Obama Administration whitewashes our retreat from Iraq, the enemy was still fighting and still holding ground when we left.
For those of you who did not fight in Iraq and have not visited Iraq since our retreat, you should know that Mosul was never pacified and maintained its status as a hotbed of Al Qaeda (AQ) activity. Neither President Bush nor President Obama finished the war. To the present day, Mosul has been a part of the ratline of jihadists making their way to fight in Syria. In fact, US intelligence has been well aware that Mosul has been a key staging point for AQ training and equipping jihadists en route to joining ISIL for years. Mosul has also been effectively “no-go” territory for westerners and has been controlled since before the US retreat by Sunni extremists. As such, the fear and panic that ISIL has “captured” Mosul is overstated. It is true they kicked out the token government forces, but the Iraqi military never controlled anything beyond the ground below their feet hiding behind the walls of abandoned US military bases. Beyond kicking out the token Iraqi forces, the only difference appears to be ISIL formally cemented their previous control of that city and surrounding regions with the execution of anyone supporting the Iraq government. So, if O’Reilly was consistent and well informed, he would have recognized that Mosul and neighboring cities like Tikrit with a large presence of Sunni extremists “falling” to ISIL was not in and of itself a game changer.
Second, O’Reilly fails to remember that it was the Sunnis, during the “Awakening,” that allied with US forces to fight the Shia militias attacking and killing Americans daily. In fact, I distinctly remember Sadr’s brigades of Shia militia backed by Iran attacking US military personnel with zeal throughout the war. I also remember the Shia going from house to house in what was originally mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods of Baghdad and ethnically cleansing the population. The Shia death squads brutally murdered any Sunni they found and turned Baghdad into a Shia city. However, it is now the Sunni extremists that O’Reilly has repeatedly called “savages” that deserve to be bombed. I would argue to O’Reilly that both factions have lived up to the pejorative term savage and have demonstrated their eagerness to kill Americans before their fellow Iraqi time and again and as such, we should be happy to leave them to their demise. In short, they are getting what they deserve and I see no reason Americans need to be again placed in the line of fire and paying to “save” savages that want us dead while they are busy killing one another.
Third, O’Reilly has totally forgotten that it was Maliki and the Iraqi government that refused to grant the US a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that would have protected our troops and allowed them to remain in Iraq beyond their set date of retreat. True, President Obama used the SOFA as a means to justify the US retreat out of Iraq, but nonetheless, the Iraqis wanted American forces out of their country. O’Reilly should perhaps volunteer himself for military service in a country that he is not invited and where killing, even in self-defense, will be deemed murder. Perhaps he does not realize the very real legal dangers our troops will be faced with as they return to Iraq. O’Reilly’s insistence on the deployment of military forces creates a conundrum for the troops because they are being deployed outside of war, to a sovereign nation, and violating its laws. Does O’Reilly actually believe Maliki’s word that our troops will now receive immunity and that President Obama will do whatever is necessary to ensure Maliki is held to his word? I think not.
Third, O’Reilly just doesn’t seem to get the fact that the war as fought under Bush was a disaster and later under Obama was also a disaster. I guess O’Reilly missed the fact that when the war began, Saddam Hussein was killing extremists for free and had nothing to do with 9/11 beyond being the fall guy for Saudi Arabia. It was Saudi Arabia, not Iraq, which was responsible for carrying out a state sponsored act of war against the US on 9/11. This fact is why Representative Walter Jones from North Carolina wants the classified 9/11 Report released so that the public will know the truth and the lies perpetrated by the US government. If US strategy was effective, there would be LESS, not more extremists. Of course it is overwhelmingly clear our strategy failed judged by this bar. O’Reilly also seems to forget that by toppling Saddam’s regime, we created the vacuum that allowed these extremists to flourish to the point they now occupy their own autonomous Islamic state. When this point is made, O’Reilly flies into defense mode and charges the person as an “apologist.” O’Reilly solely blames the Islamists, but fails to recognize the very clear order of events of cause and effect leading to this situation. O’Reilly can believe what he wants, but is not allowed to create his own facts and cherry pick from his arbitrary timeline of events. For example, O’Reilly makes the point that we invaded Iraq to rid the country of Saddam and for humanitarian purposes. On this point alone, O’Reilly must have deleted his memory files much as the IRS seems to have deleted emails. We did not invade Iraq for the purposes O’Reilly states. We invaded Iraq because we were made to believe that Iraq was an existential threat that possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that it would not turnover to U.N. inspectors, was going to use the WMD against the US, and was supporting AQ. Nothing short of creating this existential threat would have brought American into the war. As the invasion kicked off and the contrived lies became clear, the Bush Administration had to save face. The Administration then made a deliberate policy decision to change the motive for the war effort to regime change and humanitarian issues. As such, O’Reilly’s stated purpose for the war is completely fictitious. Further, O’Reilly has chided every democratic administration for humanitarian military operations, but somehow thinks he can hang on to that rationale to defend the disaster Bush created in Iraq.
O’Reilly claims we did Iraq a great favor by ridding the country of Saddam, but again, suspends logic by implying that a full invasion was the only way to “rid” Iraq of Saddam. O’Reilly has to know that there were numerous opportunities and plenty of other options to eliminate and or contain Saddam and any threat he could have possibly posed to the US. In stating this, O’Reilly totally undermines the deaths of near 1,000,000 Iraqis throughout both wars with Iraq. More importantly to me, he also dishonors the American veterans that fought in Iraq by incorrectly believing that perpetuating political lies and propaganda he somehow brings honor to their unnecessary injuries and deaths. Only by telling the truth and prosecuting the political liars within our own government that sent them out to fight a senseless war would he actually do these honorable men and women justice. However, O’Reilly continues to pander to his establishment masters to the disgrace of all who served. Although the likes of Karl Rove, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney may applaud O’Reilly, Bill becomes vile in the eyes of veterans those traitors sent to an illegal war. I am positive that very few of the million dead Iraqis posed even the slightest threat to America and would be much happier if they were alive for starters. I am also confident that the thousands of Americans who lost loved ones or that were horribly wounded would also be better off alive and well today, even if Saddam was still in power. No matter what O’Reilly believes from his ivory tower about how we improved the lives of the average Iraqi, the millions of wounded, displaced, starved, and dead would find comfort in knowing the US would never come to “help” Iraq again.
Fourth, our bombing didn’t work, yet, O’Reilly is adamant about the positive effects “heavy bombing” would have for the US against ISIL. O’Reilly seems to think that if we just carpet bomb one more convoy we will win. He seems to “know” that our pilots can positively identify targets flying at nearly the speed of sound or faster and often from above 35,000 feet as long as the “bad guys” are in the open desert. I would laugh, but he is actually serious…and using his own words, a buffoon. I guess he fails to understand how the fact ISIL is operating with the same US provided military vehicles that the Iraqi military is using can complicate targeting. If perhaps, O’Reilly had actually served in combat as a Joint Tactical Air Controller, he would know that his line of logic is ridiculous, but since he did not, let me enlighten him. Just because there is a convoy of trucks with guns in the Middle East does not positively identify the convoy as “bad guys.” In fact, the factions fighting often look indistinguishable even from the ground and much less so from the air. Without good intelligence and legitimate boots on the ground observing, identifying, and marking targets for air, O’Reilly’s airstrikes will not only be futile, but 100% counterproductive. I also think that O’Reilly must have somehow shelved the knowledge that ISIL possesses “Stinger” missiles. Even though I would argue that the likelihood is the bulk of these man portable, surface-to-air missiles are advanced Soviet designs smuggled into Syria by our very own CIA from Libya (hello Benghazi), the missiles nonetheless exist and pose a significant threat to our aircraft operating at low altitudes. I wonder if the loss of an American pilot and an F-16 is worth it to O’Reilly?
Finally, O’Reilly went on to say that ISIL does not recognize the Iraq-Syrian border and that we must pursue ISIL into Syria. I do not disagree that the border has long since ceased to exist and that to prosecute an effective campaign, you must not allow the insurgent sanctuary. Too bad we didn’t use this same logic in Afghanistan where even the dullest of officers recognized that to decisively defeat the Taliban, one must either secure the border or cross into Pakistan, but I digress. Moving back to bombing ISIL in Syria, O’Reilly completely demonstrates his hypocrisy and wins the award for pinhead. Time and again, O’Reilly has been on air demanding President Obama support the rebels in Syria and has attacked the Administration repeatedly for not doing enough, yet, he fails to realize that he is simultaneously demanding we bomb ISIL and support ISIL. O’Reilly is naïve and or ignorant if he fails to make the connection that we have been covertly organizing, arming, training, and equipping the rebel forces in Syria to fight President Assad and it is these same forces, which are now rampaging throughout Iraq. The savages that O’Reilly demands we bomb are the savages we created just like in Afghanistan and Libya. In fact, if we bomb ISIL at their points of origin as O’Reilly suggests… in their training camps in Syria (Jordan and Turkey too O’Reilly), I wonder if he realizes we will be killing American special forces and CIA ground branch officers currently training these terrorists. So I ask O’Reilly, who are the good guys and who are the bad guys because I am very confused.

By Guiles Hendrik
All rights reserved.

New White House Scandal Emerges: US Covering Up Loss of Stinger Missiles in Syria to ISIL

July 1, 2014 Last Minute Survival Terrorism Comments Off

Media reports (see: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/16/us-made-stinger-missiles-have-likely-fallen-into-isis-hands-officials-say/), later tacitly confirmed by the Department of Defense (DOD) before burying the subject, have identified that ISIL possesses Stinger Missiles. The US manufactured Stinger missile is a highly potent, man portable, shoulder launched, anti-aircraft missile that has advanced technology to defeat aircraft counter measures. To see a video of various Stinger Missile variants in action click here: (http://www.military.com/video/guided-missiles/surface-to-air/the-fim-92-stinger-missile/1107957918001/). These missiles pose an extreme threat to any low flying aircraft to include passenger jets. The missiles are considered a highly sensitive weapon system and are heavily controlled due to their potential lethality. As such, the DOD goes to great lengths to prevent these weapons from falling into the wrong hands and they are accounted for individually. Nonetheless, these very dangerous weapons have somehow made their way into the hands of ISIL extremists. The scandal and cover up precipitate from the answer of how these weapons found their way into the hands of ISIL.

The White House would have been happy if the media had never reported that ISIL possessed Stinger missiles. However, it soon became clear that ISIL did possess the missiles and this could not be suppressed (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jun/17/iraqi-shiites-take-a-stand-against-sunni-extremist/?page=2, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant, http://www.military.com/video/guided-missiles/surface-to-air/fsa-downs-helo-with-stinger-missile/2207383115001/; http://beforeitsnews.com/strange/2012/08/cia-provides-stinger-missiles-to-syrian-freedom-fighters-2442552.html). Therefore, the White House created a narrative about how the US missiles found their way into terrorist hands. The White House blamed the Iraqi military and claimed the Stingers must have been captured when ISIL overran Iraqi military bases in Mosul. There is just one major problem with this claim. The DOD did not provide the Iraqi military with Stinger missiles and none were stored in Mosul. The truth is that the Stinger missiles ISIL possess were not captured and did not come from Iraq. The White House is fully aware of this fact and has intentionally attempted to cover up the truth. The Stinger Missiles ISIL possesses are missiles the CIA directly provided “moderate” rebel groups in Syria to help them overthrow Syrian President Assad. President Obama cannot plead ignorance on this matter because he had to personally sign the covert action “finding” to arm the rebels with Stingers. President Obama granted this approval after the rebels pleaded for a capability to shoot down Syrian military aircraft that were persistently bombing rebel positions. Counter to President Obama’s claims of supporting only “moderate” rebel factions and our “ability” to ensure any military weaponry the US provides the rebels would not fall into extremist hands, this is exactly what has occurred. President Obama has at best allowed and at worse given terrorists anti-aircraft missiles and is now in complete denial mode!

The White House has been caught in another lie and the media is simply too bought and or too ignorant to identify another major cover up right in front of them. Minimal investigative journalism would have allowed a decent reporter to put the pieces together on wear in fact the ISIL Stinger Missiles actually came from in Syria. What makes this most recent White House scandal so damning and dangerous is the fact that, as we have warned, these anti-aircraft missiles will most likely be used against civilian passenger jetliners in the near future to kill Americans. WHEN it happens, the Obama Administration will no doubt be “caught by surprise” and will have a readymade excuse blaming someone else (like the Iraqi military) for their utter dereliction of their duties to protect Americans. It is your job to make sure the word gets out and you can help fix this if you contact media outlets and your elected representatives and grill them over this scandal. Demand all military aid and support for the terrorist backed rebels in Syria be immediately cut off. Further, demand a full investigation into how these missiles were given to terrorists and insist on prosecution of those responsible under the federal acts prohibiting material support to terrorist organizations.

For more see:

http://voiceofrussia.com/2012_10_24/Russian-Military-Chief-US-supplying-anti-aircraft-missiles-to-Syrian-rebels/

By Guiles Hendrik

The Disintegration of Iraq: US Military Action in Iraq neither Wise nor Suitable

June 23, 2014 Last Minute Survival Syria, Terrorism Comments Off

As the hordes of American/Saudi/Qatari sponsored terrorists race across Iraq in what appears to be a blood orgy of Islamic extremism of the worst sort, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki has appealed for help. Maliki’s forces, to include two divisions of American trained Iraqi soldiers, have broken and fled leaving all of their equipment behind to the attacking extremist army. Although, I believe the takfir blitzkrieg will be blunted once it hits Shia neighborhoods as it presses its advance into Baghdad and initially bypass the city for key oil infrastructure, it is clear Maliki has lost control of what used to be Iraq. In spite of the incompetence of the White House and senior advisors, this occurred exactly as we have been warning and predicted over a year ago.

See:

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/03/17/pm-maliki-accuses-qatar-and-saudi-arabia-of-waging-war-against-iraq/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/01/31/the-rise-of-the-islamic-state-of-the-levant-as-iraq-fractures-so-does-the-middle-east/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/01/10/as-we-predicted-syrian-and-iraqi-civil-wars-merge-as-president-obamas-claims-of-a-defeated-al-qaeda-crumble/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/05/12/iraqs-descent-back-into-violence/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2014/02/05/the-other-shoe-drops-syrian-kurds-declare-independence/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/09/09/al-qaeda-rebels-in-syria-begin-killing-kurds/

http://www.blackboxwire.com/2013/09/09/media-missed-the-biggest-coup-in-the-middle-east-and-it-wasnt-in-egypt/

Now that Iraq has fully disintegrated, the Kurds are now effectively independent, the Sunni areas are consolidated under extremist Sharia rule, and the Shia areas are left relying on Iran to save them from being completely massacred and conquered. This critical juncture has policy makers grappling with whether or not to send in US military support to which I emphatically warn is a horrible idea. I say again, INTERVENTION IS A HORRIBLE IDEA!

Now that Iraq has collapsed, many in the US are demanding the US military again be deployed to defend “gains” previously made in Iraq. These individuals are the same hacks that never fought in a war and led US “strategy” to a complete failure in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact many of these snake oil policy makers hid from reckless wars like former Ambassador John Bolton and profit handsomely from the industry of war. Further, when one hears Senators Lindsey Graham and John McCain expound upon how the US must bomb the extremist army before it seizes Baghdad, consider these are the same senators that also demanded that President Obama do more in Syria to arm this very same army and bomb President Assad. Ironically, it was Assad that has been fighting this extremist army from the beginning and pleading for help from the international community. Further, it was Russia that warned the US that this army was in fact composed of radical extremists, but we ignored them and called them liars when it was the US that was lying. After all, we knew from the beginning the army was made of jihadists because the CIA’s ground branch is what organized, armed, and trained this army. If you do not see the obvious hypocrisy, bias, lobbyist dollars, and stupidity all wrapped up in US Middle East Policy, you should remove the blindfold now and engage your faculties of logic.

The problem with the logic of intervention in Iraq is multifaceted. First of all, it completely ignores the fact that just across the Iraqi border to the west in Jordan, Syria, and Turkey, the US is covertly and now clandestinely (yes, these are different) arming, training, and equipping these terrorists to fight Syrian President Assad, which I have argued from its covert beginnings could only end bad. Second, to believe an overthrow of Maliki’s government somehow translates to lost gains presumes one actually bought into the White House’s lies and propaganda respective of accomplishing anything decisive in Iraq. The reality is the US was strategically defeated in Iraq and used the hand over and pullout as a face saving maneuver to explain its retreat. I would invite anyone that disagrees with the notion of US defeat in Iraq to attempt to walk through Iraq without being killed, kidnapped, or imprisoned. Note that we will see this strategic defeat repeated in Afghanistan. However, in Afghanistan, it will be to greater American detriment since we are currently planning on leaving 10,000 personnel in that country to be captured in killed by the Taliban when they launch their offensive to regain power shortly after the US reaches the 10,000 level of troops. Third, Iraq refused (to no angst of President Obama, who was looking for an excuse to pullout) to agree to a status of forces agreement (SOFA), which would have provided legal protections to any potential future US forces stationed in Iraq. Without a SOFA in place, US personnel could be tried under Iraqi law. As a soldier that potentially would have to kill an Iraqi in self-defense, the prospect of being tried for “murder” in Iraq made any future garrisoning of troops in Iraq untenable. Finally, it is insane to think that the US can drop a few bombs and stem the tide of events in Iraq. Events have long moved beyond the effectiveness of a few bombing raids. We spent a decade vainly trying to subdue Sunni extremists while simultaneously being attacked by Sadr’s Iranian backed Shia forces. Both sides hate us and have proven they prioritize killing Americans above killing each other. To this end, American intervention would only waste more precious blood and treasure that we can ill afford.

To avoid another quagmire, it would be best to stop aiding terrorists in Syria as a reasonable start. We should then be quite content to let the factions fight it out amongst themselves while reinforcing the Kurds and letting Assad press the extremist army from the west. In particular, the Kurds have access to ample oil, are better fighters than the Arabs, have a functioning government and infrastructure, hold a strategic geographical position and are welcoming of US bases, have proven to be pro-American, and are religiously moderate. The US Department of State, for reasons that in all respects appear to be a systemic ethnic prejudice, has persistently degraded US relations with the Kurds and at every opportunity placed Kurdish interests far below Sunni and Shia interests in Iraq. If there was ever a time to change policy and embrace the Kurds, now would be it. Finally, the US must address and stop Saudi Arabia. Saudi funding is the true catalyst of the Islamic extremist movement. The US has turned a blind eye to Saudi actions far too long and it is time the US demands Saudi Arabia stops the exportation of Wahhabism and capture, kill, and or arrest the senior Saudis responsible for the export of terrorism. Continuing to ignore the Saudi gorilla in the room is tantamount to knowingly fighting the wrong adversary while simultaneously claiming to be confused why they real enemy is still growing stronger and able to attack you. After all, it is no surprise that since the “War on Terrorism” began, Islamic extremism has done nothing but expand and strengthen. Might that have something to do with the fact we are fighting a faux war against the wrong enemy? Mark my words, until someone dismantles the Saudi extremist industry, the threat of Islamic extremism will continue to spread and grow. Radical sharia law is already upon our doorsteps, but for reasons of political correctness, ignorance, and or lobbyist dollars, our government has been derelict to the point of treason addressing the growing existential Saudi threat.

By Guiles Hendrik
June 22, 2014
All rights reserved.

As gas prices prepare to skyrocket, thank President Obama and the Saudis

June 19, 2014 Last Minute Survival Economy, Energy Security, Oil and Gas, Terrorism Comments Off

I would like to advise our readers that now would be a good time to buy any fuel you may need for the coming months in bulk if you have the option. At the least, you might as well fill your gas cans and fuel tanks because the price of gas is not going to be getting any cheaper anytime soon. Due to the support provided by the United States (Authorized by President Obama) and Saudi Arabia (Qatar and Turkey to lesser extents), we have armed, trained, and equipped the largest Islamic extremist army of modern times and unleashed it on the Middle East. This army is now massacring thousands across Iraq and Syria to include countless Christians. The actions of this terrorist army will soon come home to haunt Americans that were too apathetic and or foolish to demand President Obama and Congress cease support to terrorist rebels in Syria.
As Iraq implodes, it is the Saudis and Qataris who are handsomely profiting from the spike in oil prices. The spike is a result of Obama’s schizophrenic foreign policy disaster that made it all possible. As America’s badly battered economy faces another blow it can ill afford you now must spend even more money you don’t have to just fill your gas tank, remember it was President Obama and his pals in Saudi Arabia that hooked you up. Oh, and just in case you didn’t catch it, the US government is using your tax dollars to fund terrorists that want to kill you. President Obama is claiming the US needs gun control while using your tax dollars to hand military grade advanced weapons to 100% ardent, hardened, American hating, terrorists. To add insult to injury, this is all being done while simultaneously the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is chasing domestic boogiemen at home. Remember, DHS is claiming you, your veteran uncle, and your 90 year old grandmother are potential terrorists so you must be subjected to total surveillance and physical searches that in the extreme could be considered forcible sodomy. Don’t worry though; this is all for your “security” and to “protect” you.
As I write, the extreme of extreme Islamists forces are massacring their way to Baghdad. To date, the Iraqi army has been totally routed and has fled leaving all of the weapons and equipment for the enemy. The true test of the Islamist army will be when it begins to enter Baghdad and the first all Shia neighborhoods. This army is not immune to the same carnage any army would face in urban combat where the fighting is up close and brutal. As such, I expect the onslaught to be stalled in Baghdad and perhaps even to bypass Baghdad for key oil infrastructure. Nonetheless, the Sunnis have defeated and subjugated the Shia in Iraq before and it is likely they could again. Even if the extremist forces are halted entering Baghdad, they will most likely turn the thrust of their advance to the east and bypass Baghdad. This will allow the army to seize and or destroy key oil infrastructure. This all but guarantees disruptions to production and that the cost of oil and therefore fuel is about to skyrocket.
What can be done about this for now is most likely nothing. We can watch and enjoy the spike in gas prices as our contracting economy shrinks even faster. However, I would recommend you take a whopping five minutes out of your day and cut and paste an email to your two senators and one representative in Congress and demand Congress freezes any form of support or aid to the rebels/terrorists fighting Assad and now campaigning in Iraq. You may also want to call into your favorite talk radio show and discuss these topics. Finally, come November, vote out every single incumbent and replace them with independent representatives.
By Guiles Hendrik
June 18, 2014
All rights reserved.

PM Maliki Accuses Qatar and Saudi Arabia of Waging War against Iraq

March 19, 2014 Last Minute Survival 9/11, Al Qaeda, News and Intelligence, Terrorism Comments Off

As we have reported for some time, the US support to Al Qaeda affiliated jihadist groups waging an insurgent war in Syria would cause the conflict to spread beyond Syria’s borders. Specifically, we pointed out that the Qatari and Saudi backed insurgents would threaten the Shia dominated (Iranian leaning) government in Iraq. This came to fruition after anti-government militants seized control of the city of Fallujah in December. Since then Iraqi forces have been unable to get the city back from the rebel fighters. Further proof of our predicted regionalization of the war came recently after Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki accused Saudi Arabia and Qatar of declaring war on Iraq and supporting global terrorism. The Iraqi leader blamed the two countries for orchestrating the latest wave of bloody violence to hit Iraq this year, which continues unabated and at levels not seen since the height of the bloodshed during the US occupation. Of course you will never hear this in a White House briefing or on the CNN and Fox propaganda networks.
Prime Minister Maliki placed the blame for the increasing terrorist violence in Iraq on Qatar and Saudi Arabia in an interview with France 24. He said both countries are supporting extreme sectarian groups within Iraq, with a view to destabilizing the country and are “attacking” Iraq through Syria. “I accuse them of inciting and encouraging the terrorist movements. I accuse them of supporting them politically and in the media, of supporting them with money and by buying weapons for them. I accuse them of leading an open war against the Iraqi government,” said Maliki, adding that Saudi Arabia and Qatar not only supported terrorism in Iraq, but also sponsor terrorism worldwide. Maliki made it clear that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are causing the violence when he said both countries are “buying weapons for the benefit of these terrorist organizations.” Maliki also echoes our warnings over US policy supporting known terrorists in Syria when he warned the Gulf States that their support of global terrorism “will turn against them.” Let’s consider for a minute that the leader of Iraq just squarely blamed Saudi Arabia and Qatar for terrorism worldwide. If it is true, would it not mean the entire war on terrorism has been one of the largest and misguided scams? How can it be that after a decade of fighting terrorism all around the globe that US intelligence and our leaders missed evidence that showed Saudi Arabia and Qatar were supporting terrorists? After all, aren’t Saudi Arabia and Qatar solid allies and friends of the US? The fact is Maliki is a politician suddenly caught in a rare candid moment of truth telling and the US has for decades turned a blind eye to Saudi Arabia’s blatant and deliberate support to terrorism against Americans.
If only the US government was as honest as Maliki we might actually make some headway against Islamic extremism. It should come as no surprise that one of the primary reasons we have been unsuccessful in the war on “terrorism” is because we have never attacked its real epicenter within Saudi Arabia. In fact we have criminally turned a blind eye to the terrorist acts of the Saudi government, which have led to the deaths of thousands of Americans. According to the leaked and still classified congressional report on 9/11, senior Saudi government officials were directly involved in the funding, planning, and execution of the 9/11 attacks; yet, our government has covered it up and kept it from the American people that deserve the truth. Instead of attacking Saudi Arabia for carrying out an act of war against the US, the US falsely accused and attacked Iraq under false pretenses. Instead of telling the truth to Americans, two presidents have now sent Americans to fight and die in foreign lands far removed from the real problem. Unlike Maliki, the US government has consistently misled and lied to the American people to protect THE terrorist state of Saudi Arabia. In the land of laws, this is called aiding and abetting terrorism and it is still a federal felony crime. This is nothing short of treason.

By Guiles Hendrik
March 14, 2014
All rights reserved.

Truth Trickles Out: Afghanistan troop cuts will likely lead to Taliban surge, study warns (Surprise…exactly as we predicted)

March 3, 2014 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda, Terrorism Comments Off

March 3, 2014: Our track record continues its pristine record of accurately cutting through the lies and deception and correctly forecasting the impact of United States’ policy. In one of the most recent reveals, it took a gold star panel of overpaid, retired bureaucrats and generals (forgive me if I am redundant) to “discover” that NATO’s optimistic predictions for Afghanistan’s future, contrived at its 2012 Chicago summit, were ridiculously flawed. The study conducted by the “nonpartisan” think tank CNA concluded that stability in Afghanistan will require tens of thousands more troops costing billions more dollars than NATO envisioned at its 2012 summit. The review,conducted at the behest of the Pentagon’s policy directorate, found that the Taliban insurgency is likely to swell in the years following the upcoming US and NATO military withdrawal, which contradicts the expectations set at NATO’s May 2012 summit. The review also saw widespread deficiencies in NATO’s planning for Afghanistan manpower, logistics, air support and ministerial strength.

As we reported previously, it was readily apparent to anyone willing to take an unbiased look at the situation in Afghanistan that our counterinsurgency strategy “coined” (pun intended) by strategic snake oil salesmen like disgraced General David Petraeus, Australian “fiction author” David Kilcullen, and RAND Associate Director/Mental Incompetent Seth Jones was an abject failure. In particular, sealing the border connecting Afghanistan to Pakistan, the single most critical element required to win in Afghanistan, was not even attempted and discounted by the brain trust listed above. Further, the brain trust relied nearly exclusively on financial aid (bribes which ultimately funded the Taliban) and training of the Afghan police and military (soon to just be a well trained and equipped Taliban army), which has again proven to have no historical precedent for success in warfare. The damning Government Accountability Office (GAO) study (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d1166.pdf) sums up this situation succinctly stating: “The Afghan government and international community have set an objective of having the Afghan army and police lead and conduct security operations in all Afghan provinces by the end of 2014. As of September 2010, no ANA unit was assessed as capable of conducting its mission independent of coalition assistance.” After a decade and almost a trillion dollars of direct and indirect spending the US had effectively trained a whopping 0% of the Afghan Army to operate on its own! Anyone that thought just a few hundred billion more dollars and a couple more years would change this was stupid or lying…perhaps both. I am honestly sick of listening to these idiots create policy after policy on how to “win” in Afghanistan when none of them have a lick of sense, have been in an actual firefight firsthand, or can show that a single policy they recommended led to a decisive US victory. Of course many excuses were put forth, but the reality was something much deeper as those with functional brains recognized. The fact was that victory was impossible without the will to actually fight a war to decisive ends, which required the US to have a coherent strategy, competent leadership, the ability to unilaterally run the Afghan government, and the “US” military (not the Afghan enemy) to prosecute a war of attrition across the border into Pakistan and wipe out millions of Pashtuns. None of these necessary conditions were in place, which created an insurmountable situation in Afghanistan in respect to achieving a decisive victory.

Not so ironically, the review comes as the US policy makers realize they must retreat out of Afghanistan in defeat and will need an alibi to cloak their failure. Dusting off the Iraq playbook, it should come as no surprise the US, after “exhausting all options with an intractable President Karzai,” will have to pull its troops out of Afghanistan because he won’t sign a status of forces agreement (SOFA). The spin will be used to justify Bush and now Obama’s military defeats, but don’t expect anyone to question Jay Carney about why after invading, occupying, killing over a hundred thousand people, and placing our puppet in charge that we somehow are now unable to stay because of minor bureaucratic red tape. The weakness of the public mind knows no bottom.

The CNA review panel at least is correct in recognizing the persistent Taliban insurgency will mount an increased threat to the Afghan government for years after the envisaged NATO withdrawal. The CNA team’s prediction of an increased Taliban threat to Afghanistan through 2018, supported by a recent US intelligence assessment, “stands in direct contradiction to the assumption of a reduced insurgent threat made at the Chicago Summit,” the report states. This is about as much credit as I can give the CNA team. Beyond this, their analysis becomes pure garbage and it is nauseating to think how many tax dollars were spent on this trash.

The problem with the study is the CNA panel falls short on accurately getting the present facts right and thus, utterly blows their long term forecasted endstate, which predicts a stalemate. “We conclude that this force is not likely to defeat the Taliban militarily, but that if it can hold against the Taliban insurgency through 2018, the likelihood of a negotiated settlement to the war will increase,” the CNA review found. The reality is that every province that has been turned over to the Afghan military has effectively been turned over to Taliban control. The Taliban have outlasted the US, NATO, and the Afghan military for over a decade. The Taliban will make short work of the Afghan military one on one. To think they will be looking for a “negotiated settlement” is utter insanity. The Taliban will defeat and absorb the Afghan army rapidly. As the last US forces pull out of Afghanistan the Taliban will mount a full scale assault on Kabul to retake the country. This will leave the situation on the ground almost the same as the US found it in 2001 with the difference being the Taliban are far more numerous, better trained, better armed, better organized, and with an earned hatred of the US. In a laughable twist to counter this, the CNA team advises (remember, the team is made of “senior” policy makers and generals) the Pentagon to keep international military advisers in the Afghanistan ministries of defense and interior through “at least” 2018 to mitigate long-term problems, including corruption and incompetence. After reading this, I was left with zero doubt why the Taliban have outlasted the US military. Our leaders are idiots. It is a joke to propose that a few advisors will save the day. Equally blind is the notion that corruption and incompetence, not a viable enemy at the gates will be the big problem for the encircled Karzai regime. Even with a large number of troops and advisors in country right now, the US has failed to accomplish defeating the military or rooting out corruption. After thousands of Americans have been killed in this useless war, there still is not even the slightest spark of logic or integrity within the senior echelon and the apathetic public remains in a mute, trance like state when it comes to calling out President Obama and his mob of derelict morons driving the US off a policy cliff.

To conclude, make no mistake of these facts and further predictions. One, the US suffered a strategic defeat in Afghanistan. Two, the US will use the failure, albeit an intentional failure, to sign a SOFA (agreement) as a means to save face as it retreats. Three, the Taliban will retake the country and will be more powerful than they ever could have been if the US did not invade back in 2001. Four, the Karzai puppet regime will not last to 2018 and Karzai will most likely be killed or flee back to Europe where he hid billions of US aid in complicit Swiss and Dubai banks. Fifth, in absence of a war in Afghanistan and a failing domestic economy, the US will start wars elsewhere to feed the coffers of the Congressional-Military-Industrial Complex and distract the unemployed masses back in the US.

By Guiles Hendrik

March 3, 2014

The Rise of the Islamic State of the Levant: As Iraq fractures so does the Middle East

February 1, 2014 Last Minute Survival Al Qaeda, Iran, Israel, Syria, Terrorism Comments Off

Al Qaeda(AQ) is more powerful today than it was over a decade ago when then President George W. Bush declared his nebulous, ill-fated war on terrorism. Ironically, one could strongly argue it was the war against AQ that made AQ more popular and resilient than it could have ever hoped to be autonomously operating in the shadows. Nothing is more demonstrative of this than the situation today in Iraq. AQ has become a conventional military force and effectively dissolved the border between Iraq and Syria merging it into the Islamic State of the Levant almost completely absent of media attention in the west. In fact, in its first major test as a state like entity, the Iraqi Army conducted a full scale assault on the AQ held portions of Ramadi and Fallujah only to suffer a decisive defeat leaving AQ firmly in control of the traditional Sunni areas of Iraq. The ramifications of this transformation of AQ from a stateless terrorist organization to a conventional army with a defined geographical territory right in the heart of the Middle East are extremely dire even if the Western Media has all but ignored the disaster borne of Bush and Obama’s failed foreign policies.
President Obama has cited again and again how AQ has been defeated and dismantled, yet AQ has repeatedly proven the president either ignorant or a liar as we predicted. As a result of the US conducting its insane policy of intervening in the Syrian Civil War (not to mention creating the war) and then providing military grade weapons to AQ aligned rebels in Syria, AQ fighters now have a conventional military capability compliments of the US taxpayer whether directly supplied by the CIA or indirectly via Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In fact, the heavily armed AQ rebels have crossed into Iraq for sanctuary and taken over large stretches of the western portions of Iraq. As I warned, the insurgencies in Syria and Iraq could merge and create massive unrest in the Middle East. This perfect storm has emerged. With the firepower supplied by not just the US, but Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, the AQ elements are not stopping in western Iraq and instead have pushed on toward Baghdad. The Shia controlled Iraqi government has so far been unable to retake the areas already captured by AQ and has now been defeated in direct conventional combat operations in both Fallujah and Ramadi. If the Iraqi military is unable to check the advance and growth of the AQ Army, it is indeed possible that portions of Baghdad will be captured by AQ. This in effect will mean that Iraq has effectively splintered into three autonomous nations, one Sunni, one Kurd, and one Shia as I have predicted for years. It will also herald the emergence of the AQ organization, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, into the actual Islamic State of the Levant.
Even if Baghdad is not taken by AQ the situation is already quite dire. An all-out sectarian proxy war has begun between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The battlefield to date has been confined to the Middle East, but it soon will spill over onto other continents with Africa already suffering the worst from growing Islamic extremism. Each side has gained victories and neither is done fighting. Iran has so far managed to maintain its ally Syria against the concerted efforts of the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and even Turkey. Iran maintains strong influence over the Iraqi government, which remains predominantly Shia. Iran has also diplomatically outmaneuvered the US, which based on the accomplishments of Secretaries Clinton and Kerry should not come as any surprise, and forced a deal over its nuclear program to include reducing sanctions. However, Hezbollah leaders have been assassinated in Lebanon and AQ backed Sunnis have taken over western Iraq.
This sets the stage in Iraq for a winner takes all fight that will become very bloody. Iran has strategic interests in maintaining its newly minted proxy government in Iraq, compliments of the shortsighted US policy that toppled the Sunni-Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein. In particular, the Iraqi government allows Iran to move weapons and troops through its territory to support President Assad’s forces in Syria and is colluding with Iran on oil production to undercut Saudi oil revenues. However, Iraq’s government is vulnerable so Iran will support the Iraqi military with Iranian units against AQ. Iran is well aware that by defeating these AQ elements in Iraq, it will severely weaken the rebel forces fighting its traditional ally Syria. Saudi Arabia knows that an Iranian win in Syria or Iraq will most likely mean a strategic win across the board for Iran. Saudi Arabia will view a nuclear Iran with control of both Iraq and Syria as an existential strategic threat that it won’t be able to ignore. As such, Saudi Arabia has to escalate the proxy war it in part created by doubling down and backing the AQ aligned Sunnis in an attempt to weaken Iran. This will lead to greater, prolonged bloodshed throughout the Middle East, a disintegration of borders, and further destabilization of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Yemen.
Dangerously, almost any conceivable conclusion to the Iran-Saudi proxy war now seems to point to greater war in the Middle East that will be difficult to deescalate. A stalemate or major breakthrough in favor of Iran may force the countries into direct conflict. Saudi Arabia may also lobby for and overtly support a devastating Israeli strike against Iran, which will have global repercussions. It will also signal Saudi Arabia to move forward with purchasing its own nuclear weapons from Pakistan setting off the dreaded cycle of proliferation across the region. However, if Iran is defeated, the results could be far worse. An Iranian defeat means an AQ victory. In the event of victory, AQ will solidify what amounts to the Islamic State of the Levant. This newly emerged state will turn on the corrupt regimes that spawned it and attack Jordan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia potentially toppling those regimes. Further, AQ would solidify their control of the region and make it effectively off limits for any US interests short of another war. The new Islamic State of the Levant would be a breeding ground for attacks against the US and a safe haven for terrorists that have emerged into a legitimate army. Saudi Arabia, in particular, will be very vulnerable to the AQ fighters and could be destabilized to the point oil production is severely disrupted. Israel will come under even greater pressure as the Palestinians receive increased support from AQ leadership. These are just a few of the first order regional effects without even touching the greater global implications and how it would affect major powers like the US, Russia, and China.
The US will regret that it armed, trained, and equipped AQ elements in Syria for short sighted policies designed to undermine Iran. The ramifications of the chain reaction Washington’s policy set in motion will be dire and far reaching. Already, the world must begin to recognize it created a defacto AQ state in the Levant even if the western media has not grasped this new reality. Nonetheless, one cannot predict with certainty how this will end, but one can be certain that much greater blood will be shed before this new regional war concludes.

By Guiles Hendrik
January 31, 2014
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