Archive for Oil and Gas

ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War

May 18, 2015 Al Qaeda, Department of Defense, Department of State, Economy, Energy Security, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIS, Israel, Military, Military Industrial Complex, New Cold War, News and Intelligence, Obama, Oil and Gas, Politics, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Terrorism, Yemen Comments Off on ISIL Takes Ramadi: World One Step Closer to World War
Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

Perhaps if the Iraqi soldiers used ammunition in their M240 machine gun they would have better results against ISIL. I loved poorly staged propaganda photos.

This week’s news that ISIL inflicted a heavy defeat upon Iraqi government forces is no surprise.  Whether or not ISIL can hold the ground is yet to be seen, but it sends a strong signal Washington’s strategy in Iraq is failing contrary to the claims of Obama’s paid propagandists.  Further, and more ominous for the world, it moves the Middle East one notch closer to an all-out regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  As I have predicted for years, this coming conflagration is now a near certainty.  At this stage of the on-going proxy war there are simply no peaceful off ramps and it will be a winner takes all struggle.  Either radical Sunni extremists aligned under Saudi Arabia or radical Shia extremists aligned under Iran will prevail, which in either case will trigger a global war that involves the US and Israel.  For those of you saying, “Good, let them kill each other,” a lesson on the global economic implications of a sudden shut down of oil from the Middle East is in order.  In short, outright chaos will ensue.

Those of you that read my work regularly are well aware that I predicted the failure of US efforts to curb ISIL and the fall of Ramadi well over a year ago and the growing regional conflict in the Middle East “years” ago.  In fact, even my recent my global updates from April 20, 2015 speak specifically to Ramadi and ISIL, http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/04/20/global-updates/.  In the brief, I specifically called out the Obama Administration as misleading the US on our “success” against ISIL in Tikrit and said that ISIL had simply shifted its forces south to “Ramadi” where I expected it to achieve success.  Below is the exact exert from my forecast. Read more

Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2

April 2, 2015 Al Qaeda, Danger Alerts!, Department of Defense, Department of State, Exclusive Story, Global War, Iran, ISIL, ISIS, Israel, Military, Military Industrial Complex, News and Intelligence, Obama, Oil and Gas, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism Comments Off on Peace with Iran will lead to war: Part 2
Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Hardened Iranian Nuclear Facility at Fordo(w)

Last week I discussed why peace with Iran was the preferred option.  I outlined a number of salient points uninformed talking heads in the media and well paid Israel lobbyists such as the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, will never bring up.  In short, the costs of a war with Iran will far outweigh the costs of accepting a turbulent peace.  Even a successful war against Iran will be a Pyric victory and cause an economic collapse in the US.  Further, even if Iran did test a nuclear weapon, we would still have plenty of time to exercise the war option should it be necessary.  Unfortunately, even if the US does manage to broker a peace deal with Iran, war is now close to a certainty.  In the event of a war with Iran, there will be dire implications for the US.  Today I will discuss why war is now imminent, how it will likely be initiated, and the catastrophic effects on the US you must prepare to endure. Read more

Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part II: The War on ISIL and Syria

October 1, 2014 Al Qaeda, Big Banks, Big Government, Congress, Constitution, Danger Alerts!, Department of Defense, Economy, Energy Security, Exclusive Story, Global War, Iran, ISIL, Military, Military Industrial Complex, News and Intelligence, Obama, Oil and Gas, Syria, Terrorism Comments Off on Islamic extremism and what lies ahead? Part II: The War on ISIL and Syria
Airstrikes in Iraq

Airstrikes in Iraq

President Obama and his top military advisors have learned nothing and have made a grave mistake starting a war with Syria using ISIL as the pretext.  Just as I was confident and proven correct that this situation would materialize, I am equally confident in my analysis that this new war will lead to America’s greatest foreign policy disaster to date.  Neither war with Syrian nor ISIL will be decisive, successful, or lead to greater security for the American people.  However, the war may indeed turn out to lead to America’s unwinding as the world’s sole superpower and economic bankruptcy.  This post will continue my analysis on the on-going crisis unfolding in the Middle East respective of Obama’s newest war. Read more

Putin vs Obama Part III: Why Russia will win

September 27, 2014 Department of State, Economy, Energy Security, Exclusive Story, Global War, Military, News and Intelligence, Obama, Oil and Gas, Politics, Putin, Russia Comments Off on Putin vs Obama Part III: Why Russia will win
Putin speaks during his visit to the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

Putin speaks during his visit to the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote: “For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.”  Kissinger, like him or not, is spot on in his succinct assessment of Obama’s policy for Russia.  As the West descends into another reckless and disastrous war in the Middle East, Putin must be quietly laughing knowing that very soon the US will soon have its Soviet moment of collapse.  In fact, to strategically defeat the US, all Russia must do is wait for the utter mismanagement of our nation to bring about its implosion.  In this third and final installment of our exclusive analysis of the conflicting Russo-American policies, it is clear that in the first major post-Cold War struggle between Russia and the US, it will be Russia that scores a victory in the Ukraine crisis. Read more

Putin versus Obama Part II: Who is the better leader?

September 23, 2014 Energy Security, Exclusive Story, Global War, Military, News and Intelligence, Obama, Oil and Gas, Putin, Resistance to Tyranny, Russia Comments Off on Putin versus Obama Part II: Who is the better leader?
US President Barack Obama (L) holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort near Enniskillen in Northern Ireland, on June 17, 2013. The conflict in Syria was set to dominate the G8 summit starting in Northern Ireland on Monday, with Western leaders upping pressure on Russia to back away from its support for President Bashar al-Assad. AFP PHOTO / JEWEL SAMAD (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

US President Barack Obama (L) holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort near Enniskillen in Northern Ireland, on June 17, 2013. The conflict in Syria was set to dominate the G8 summit starting in Northern Ireland on Monday, with Western leaders upping pressure on Russia to back away from its support for President Bashar al-Assad. AFP PHOTO / JEWEL SAMAD (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

In my on-going series analyzing the growing rift between the US and Russia, it is important to evaluate a nation’s leadership.  Specifically, let’s look at the qualifications and performance to date of Presidents Putin and Obama.  Before we go any further, it is necessary to lay down a few ground rules of the debate.  First of all, I want to dispel the myth that a person can be of mediocre intellect, but a good president as long as they have a good staff.  This oft stated notion is a ridiculous excuse used by political parties to mitigate criticism that their brainless candidate is not up to the task.  Further, it is true that no one man has total control of a government, but to say that the leaders of Russia and the US have their hands tied and do not have real power would be a poorly informed lie.  In fact, both presidents have substantial power and influence over both foreign and domestic affairs and craft geopolitical strategy that affects the world.  If there wasn’t truth to this, then why would we ascribe so much prestige upon leaders like Thatcher, Reagan, Lincoln, and Washington?  Due to the real power and influence presidents wield, it is important to assess who has demonstrated the ability to more effectively lead and use that power.  Based on that evaluation, you are better able to analyze and predict the actions and ultimate outcomes of any potential or on-going political conflicts between the US and Russia. Read more

Putin versus Obama Part I: Are they really so different?

September 23, 2014 Congress, Energy Security, Global War, Obama, Oil and Gas, Putin, Russia Comments Off on Putin versus Obama Part I: Are they really so different?

obama-putinMuch of the rhetoric behind the push to create a new Cold War centers on Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The complicit media and the Obama Administration have pulled no punches in smearing President Putin and casting him as the most evil of tyrants and a political thug imprisoning opposition, seizing assets, enriching himself on the government’s dime, and intimidating reporters and political dissidents.  In fact, much of this is probably true; however, before we cast the first stone and judge Putin as evil incarnate and start World War III, perhaps some national retrospection of our own actions and character would be in order.  Let’s step back and evaluate America’s actions and consider whether or not we may have lost the moral high ground and then,…just perhaps, should rethink our policy, attitudes, and actions toward Russia. Read more

As gas prices prepare to skyrocket, thank President Obama and the Saudis

June 19, 2014 Economy, Energy Security, Oil and Gas, Terrorism Comments Off on As gas prices prepare to skyrocket, thank President Obama and the Saudis

I would like to advise our readers that now would be a good time to buy any fuel you may need for the coming months in bulk if you have the option. At the least, you might as well fill your gas cans and fuel tanks because the price of gas is not going to be getting any cheaper anytime soon. Due to the support provided by the United States (Authorized by President Obama) and Saudi Arabia (Qatar and Turkey to lesser extents), we have armed, trained, and equipped the largest Islamic extremist army of modern times and unleashed it on the Middle East. This army is now massacring thousands across Iraq and Syria to include countless Christians. The actions of this terrorist army will soon come home to haunt Americans that were too apathetic and or foolish to demand President Obama and Congress cease support to terrorist rebels in Syria.
As Iraq implodes, it is the Saudis and Qataris who are handsomely profiting from the spike in oil prices. The spike is a result of Obama’s schizophrenic foreign policy disaster that made it all possible. As America’s badly battered economy faces another blow it can ill afford you now must spend even more money you don’t have to just fill your gas tank, remember it was President Obama and his pals in Saudi Arabia that hooked you up. Oh, and just in case you didn’t catch it, the US government is using your tax dollars to fund terrorists that want to kill you. President Obama is claiming the US needs gun control while using your tax dollars to hand military grade advanced weapons to 100% ardent, hardened, American hating, terrorists. To add insult to injury, this is all being done while simultaneously the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is chasing domestic boogiemen at home. Remember, DHS is claiming you, your veteran uncle, and your 90 year old grandmother are potential terrorists so you must be subjected to total surveillance and physical searches that in the extreme could be considered forcible sodomy. Don’t worry though; this is all for your “security” and to “protect” you.
As I write, the extreme of extreme Islamists forces are massacring their way to Baghdad. To date, the Iraqi army has been totally routed and has fled leaving all of the weapons and equipment for the enemy. The true test of the Islamist army will be when it begins to enter Baghdad and the first all Shia neighborhoods. This army is not immune to the same carnage any army would face in urban combat where the fighting is up close and brutal. As such, I expect the onslaught to be stalled in Baghdad and perhaps even to bypass Baghdad for key oil infrastructure. Nonetheless, the Sunnis have defeated and subjugated the Shia in Iraq before and it is likely they could again. Even if the extremist forces are halted entering Baghdad, they will most likely turn the thrust of their advance to the east and bypass Baghdad. This will allow the army to seize and or destroy key oil infrastructure. This all but guarantees disruptions to production and that the cost of oil and therefore fuel is about to skyrocket.
What can be done about this for now is most likely nothing. We can watch and enjoy the spike in gas prices as our contracting economy shrinks even faster. However, I would recommend you take a whopping five minutes out of your day and cut and paste an email to your two senators and one representative in Congress and demand Congress freezes any form of support or aid to the rebels/terrorists fighting Assad and now campaigning in Iraq. You may also want to call into your favorite talk radio show and discuss these topics. Finally, come November, vote out every single incumbent and replace them with independent representatives.
By Guiles Hendrik
June 18, 2014
All rights reserved.

Earthquakes on the Rise in Oklahoma: A new theory to explain seismic activity in areas once considered geologically stable.

December 17, 2013 Earthquakes, Energy Security, Exclusive Story, Food and Water, Oil and Gas, Uncategorized Comments Off on Earthquakes on the Rise in Oklahoma: A new theory to explain seismic activity in areas once considered geologically stable.

Many of our readers have noticed and been tracking an uptick in the number of earthquakes in areas previously not known for seismic activity.  Oklahoma, in particular the Oklahoma City area, has been experiencing an unusually high number of quakes in recent years.  Many have speculated that fracking is causing these quakes.  However, fracking alone doesn’t appear to be a viable explanation because the quakes often happen where there is no fracking and where there is fracking no quakes occur.  Correlation isn’t necessarily causation, but in the case of fracking the evidence seems to directly contradict claims it causes earthquakes.  Seismologists agree that fracking can for the most part be ruled out as a cause of the quakes.  Nonetheless, scientists have been baffled by seismic activity in places like Oklahoma and are at a loss to explain what is going on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After reviewing the information, I would like to propose an admittedly anecdotal theory.  Empirically speaking, it seems that there is a strong correlation between the quake concentrations and the Central Oklahoma aquifer, which has been significantly drawn down over the last few decades.  Theoretically speaking, major quakes have occurred along the New Madrid Fault due to the Earth’s crust rebounding after the glaciers receded in the last ice age.  Using this as a rough corollary, it is conceivable that as a major aquifer is emptied, a similar action may be occurring.  In fact, these quakes may be the result of the earth settling into voids created when the water is removed combined with the fact that billions of tons of water pressure have also been removed as the water has been pumped from the ground.  The combined effect has created tensions (or more specifically, released tensions) in the crust great enough to cause quakes as the crust resettles.

To further test this theory, one must look to other areas that have begun to recently experience seismic activity where historically it has been rare to nonexistent.  The recent 2011 DC earthquake centered near Charlottesville, Virginia may have also been due to similar causal mechanisms even though there are known faults that run through the area that have been quiet for centuries.  A closer look at the geology around the fast growing city of Charlottesville (much like the population of Oklahoma City) shows that its water is fed from a central aquifer not directly associated with other larger aquifers.  Like the Central Oklahoma Aquifer, Charlottesville seems to be sitting on more of an isolated underground lake than a river.  As such, both can be drawn down considerably with heavy water usage.  In fact, a reduction in the water level of Charlottesville may have also caused the large and unforeseen quake that shook much of Virginia and Washington, DC.  Note that this theory is not targeted at areas that are known for seismic activity due to other known causes such as volcanism and active faults.  It is however an attempt to explain why certain areas are suddenly having seismic activity.

Considering the above, one should ask the “so what” question.  Your answer to why you should care is that much of the construction in the United States is built to codes that do not take into account major seismic events due to the low frequency of their occurrence.  However, as we have briefly discussed, more and more areas are now experiencing earthquakes where none had previously occurred to any great scale.  This means that you may be living and working or your kids may be attending a school in a structure that isn’t designed to survive an earthquake.  If my theory is correct, more and more cities drawing directly from concentrated lake-like aquifers may experience new and continued quakes that could potentially damage and or destroy structures not designed to withstand the shaking of an earthquake.  If you have any concern, access the US Geological Survey’s aquifer maps online to determine if you do in fact live in one of these areas.  If so, earthquake preparedness may be something you want to consider more seriously.

 

By Guiles Hendrik

December 17, 2013

All rights reserved.

How Good are our Analysts? Homeland Security Issues Facing the Next Administration.

September 19, 2013 Domestic Terrorism, Economy, Energy Security, Oil and Gas Comments Off on How Good are our Analysts? Homeland Security Issues Facing the Next Administration.

We have said from the beginning that predicting the past is for amateurs and academics, but accurately predicting future events is for true professionals.  Rather than pointing out that our previous articles have been spot on and proven out by recent events we will reach back to 2007.  The following memo was written by one of analysts as a short brief for whoever became the staff for the next president back in 2008.  We believe the accuracy of the predictions are a shocking testament to our accuracy.  Not only were the effects of natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy predicted, but the housing collapse, economic recession, failing infrastructure and power grid, dysfunctional health care, and even forest fires being set by terrorists were accurately identified as problems the Obama Administration would face!

The following is an exact cut and paste without edit of the August 2007 memo:

Homeland Security Issues Facing the Next Administration

 

The security of the homeland will face an unprecedented list of complex challenges in the coming year.  The next President can expect to inherit numerous lingering security issues as well as new and dire threats that will require fast and adaptive solutions.  This paper identifies critical shortfalls in contingency planning regarding how overlapping effects of a crisis significantly increase the overall magnitude of the threat.  

 

In short, a single limited crisis incident can usually be contained and reacted to.  These type contingencies have been analyzed and prepared for in detail.  Unfortunately, this one dimensional approach only identifies point of impact operations and does not deal with the much more catastrophic results of multiple overlapping incidents that occur whether by design or chance.  These type scenarios could be deemed as “worst case” and will quickly overwhelm even the combined capabilities of regional emergency services.  Even more frightening is the fact that not only can these events happen by chance, but a multi-dimensional attack can be planned and orchestrated by terrorists utilizing low technology and minimal coordination.  

 

Historically speaking, a single incident of even massive magnitude such as a natural disaster, bombing, or economic crash has been recoverable.  On the contrary, recovery against multiple disasters within a short time frame has crippled nations and brought about entire geopolitical shifts.  This ripple effect can begin quietly in a realm such as economics, but when coupled with a terrorist attack and or a natural disaster, the effects are dramatically magnified.  A real time sample vignette to illustrate this ripple effect could transpire as such:

 

Time: Labor Day Weekend 2007

 

Background:  A downturn in housing has caused the economy to slide into a recession while the federal funding has already been strained to the limit by a still on-going war.  Further, money to fund infrastructure modernization and repairs has been diverted to fund the war leaving bridges, damns, and power grids dangerously ill maintained.  Record heat waves have caused droughts across the nation and set record demand for energy that has increasingly relied on gulf oil imports as a result of the war in the Middle East.

 

Situation:  A Category 4 hurricane strikes the still recovering Gulf Coast turning the region into a flooded disaster zone.  Further massive fires have been spreading across the dry drought stricken United States as small bands of terrorist cells initiate a low tech coordinated arson attack across the country.  

 

Effects:  Normal emergency response teams are paralyzed to act in the flooded hurricane effected regions as they have been over committed fighting massive forest fires that have now begun to spread into residential and urban areas.  Due to power lines being damaged by fire, wind, and water and a high energy demand for cooling, power grids have begun to shut down leaving entire regions of the country without power.  The combined effect sparks looting and riots further deteriorating the system.  Martial law is declared, but implementation becomes difficult as forces are unavailable, not networked, and unable to span the massive scale of the crisis leading to a vulnerability culminating point.

 

The direct attack:  Just as the nation is most vulnerable, a terrorist sleeper cell is activated to conduct an attack of mass effect.  The results are catastrophic and will require years and perhaps decades for America to recover from.

 

Latent effects:  General anarchy develops leading to a massive economic downturn.  Further, failure of health care facilities and standing water from flooding leads to outbreaks of disease further exasperating the already critical situation. 

 

The above vignette is not a doomsday prophecy, but rather a very realistic scenario that could play out in present time across the nation.  DHS and the incoming administration must prepare the department for these ripple effect contingencies.  Although much more difficult to prepare for, immediate actions must be taken to specifically address the potential for ripple attack style events like above to be initiated by terrorists seeking to asymmetrically cripple the United States.  

 

As we further improve the security of our homeland, our enemies continue to adapt and find new ways to strike and the foundations of the United States.  Based on this, the Department of Homeland Security must work in concert with the next administration to continue to invest in threat analysis that seeks to predict how terrorists will asymmetrically evolve and develop new and to date unseen tactics for offensive attacks.  Recommended actions for DHS include war gaming the potential impact of different ripple chains, developing disaster drill scenarios that take the ripple effect into account, and developing a hardened and redundant logistics infrastructure that is reminiscent of the Cold War era.  A premium must also be placed on unconventional creative thinking as well as the development of agile, adaptive, and networked plans that can be rapidly implemented.

August 31, 2007

 

No one has a crystal ball, but they myriad of events illustrated in this memo certainly have come to pass and are developing as of the writing of this post.  We will continue to provide you visionary analysis with an unprecedented record of accuracy.  We hope that our analysis will help you understand the daily events happening globally and how they will affect you.  Armed with this knowledge you will be better able to make decisions critical to the protection of your life, liberty, and wealth.

See link for more information on arson as a terrorist weapon:

http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/are-terrorists-setting-u-s-wildfires/?cat_orig=us

By Guiles  Hendrik

All rights reserved

More Clues War with Iran is Near: Tapping Strategic Petroleum Reserves

August 20, 2012 Department of Defense, Economy, Energy Security, Iran, Military, News and Intelligence, Oil and Gas, Politics Comments Off on More Clues War with Iran is Near: Tapping Strategic Petroleum Reserves

President Obama recently announced his desire to dust off plans for tapping the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserves.  This is the latest in a series of actions by the Administration suggesting the U.S. is quietly preparing for a war with Iran in the near future.  Further, this closely held knowledge is a tell-tale indicator that senior U.S. planners expect a war with Iran to disrupt oil supplies.  As such, Americans should prepare to see gas prices easily double and rationing as early as this fall if Israel is not prevented from attacking.  Prepare now.

The Obama Administration suggested this move was to help bring the gas prices down and counter heavy speculation on the futures market.  The problem is this explanation fails to neither make sense nor justify its use.  Tapping the reserves will have only minimal impact on prices and the U.S. will ultimately need to replenish the used petroleum so the purchasing of petroleum by the U.S. will actually show no net change.  Granted, the cost of gasoline in the U.S. is at oppressive levels, but has been for years now without any need to draw from strategic reserves.  If this was effective, it could have been done years ago.

Others have suggested political motives stating Obama wanted to lower gas prices before the election and to help the economy, but for the already aforementioned reasons, this at best, would be limited and short-term.  At current consumption rates for imported petroleum, U.S. reserves would barely last two months.  However, even that is misleading because the maximum withdrawal capacity is only around 4.4 million barrels per day…roughly a fifth of what the U.S. uses per day in unrefined capacity.  Production is currently above demand so additional reserves being added to the already abundant oil market will again do little.  Further, U.S. refineries already operate at peak capacity so the “extra” oil would go nowhere.  If this was actually a feasible plan for jump starting the economy, why didn’t Obama do this long ago?

Finally, some Administration insiders have leaked that this was in fact a way to drive down increased oil prices to hurt Iran.  Since additional sanctions went into place on July 1st against Iran, oil prices have climbed due in part to approximately 1 million barrels per day of oil being taken off the market.  However, Iran has still found markets, as we predicted and is actually enjoying increased revenue from the price spike.  If the U.S. was serious about sanctioning Iran, they would not have given exemptions to nearly every country, such as China and Japan, that were already importing Iranian oil.   Considering that the markets had over a year ago priced in this event, the Saudis have increased production, and the U.S. has a surplus of oil, as identified above, this explanation too fails to justify tapping the reserves.

In reality, the Obama Administration is “dusting off” plans to draw on the strategic reserves because they are expecting disruptions to oil supplies in the near future.  The strategic reserves serve one purpose.  This purpose is to provide essential petroleum to refineries to support critical U.S. infrastructure including power generation plants, key industry, heating, and transportation.  Oh, and the military is who gets first dibs!  This is only done to supplement imports during emergency situations such as war or natural disaster.  The last two uses were to supplement production knocked offline by Hurricane Katrina and the temporary loss of Libyan production during the height of its civil war.

The major disruption that the U.S. is getting ready for without setting off alarms is an attack on Iran.  The U.S. knows that even in the best of outcomes, a military strike on Iran will spike fuel costs and cause at least a temporary disruption in global oil supplies.  At worst, production throughout the entire Gulf region could be destroyed and the world would face a chain of catastrophic events beginning with a massive price spike and shortages.  Further, the U.S. (taxpayer) most likely is going to get stuck with resupplying Israel with oil as it has previously done when oil to Israel has been cut off due to its wars.  Either way, it is a prudent move for any commander about to attack a country with one of the largest reserves of oil to be ready for supplies to be shut off.  A war is the single reasonable answer to this so be forewarned.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C08%5C19%5Cstory_19-8-2012_pg5_25

 

  Recent Entries »