Archive for Department of Defense

Probability for the use of nuclear weapons during the next four years nears 80%

I hate to continually bring you doom and gloom, but in short, the probability that nuclear weapons will be used within the next four years has spiked to its highest levels since the Cuban Missile Crisis.  If you haven’t reviewed your contingency plans you should.  However, this article is not meant to provide you with detailed bug out plans…search our site for those…it is meant to highlight the growing nuclear risks.

Let’s start with the good news if there is such a thing.  Out of the most likely scenarios, only two involve nuclear weapons being used against the continental United States.  These are worst case scenarios and involve a nuclear exchange with Russia and or China.  The bad news is that the potential for nuclear war with both powers has sharply risen.  With respect to Russia, if the US continues to press for regime change in Syria and uses military force, it will force a military confrontation with Russia that could spiral out of control and involve nuclear weapons.  Respective of China, it is assessed as unlikely, but possible China would join forces with Russia and Iran against the US if a direct military confrontation breaks out in Syria.  However, far more likely is the probability China joins forces with North Korea if a war breaks out and that leads to a nuclear exchange.

Note that North Korea is not listed.  North Korea currently does not possess a viable capability to strike the United States.  They are rumored to have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon in space to cause an EMP, but the likelihood of them successfully carrying out this type of attack is very low due to their technical problems and the ability of the US to counter any attack.  However, North Korea certainly has the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon on the Korean Peninsula and the chances of this are dramatically increasing.  In fact, many analysts believe China no longer has the ability to reign in North Korea and the opportunity to avert a war is now close to zero.  If true, there will be a war with North Korea within the next 24 months.  Also one must consider North Korea has a full range of chemical and biological weapons that they most likely would use in the event of war prompting a nuclear response by the US.  Adding to the danger is the fact any conventional land war in Korea could quickly cause over a million casualties.  The costs would be too high for the US to tolerate and the war would quickly go nuclear, if not from the onset, contrary to what many people in the US may believe.  As such, in the event of war with North Korea, it will be a nuclear war.  If China remains out of the conflict, we will be relatively safe in the US.  However, if China becomes involved, we will see many people die both abroad and domestically.

While everyone is distracted with their own problems, tensions are once again rising between Pakistan and India.  Both countries have nuclear weapons and events could flare into open conflict again and lead to the use of nuclear weapons.  However, the probability of this is low over the next four years.

Finally, Israel must be assessed.  Israel will not tolerate Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability.  Should Israel become convinced that Iran has continued with its weapons development, it will use tactical nuclear weapons to neutralize the program.  Fortunately, Israel and the US have once again moved closer and will likely coordinate on any war with Iran allowing the US time to de-escalate the situation or at least get out of the way before Israel launches an attack.  This is a wild card scenario because the probability is highly dependent upon other events across the world.  Should the US press with regime change in Syria, Iran will most likely use its 122,000 Shia militiamen in Iraq to overrun the Green Zone and attack US forces in Iraq and then Syria.  This could quickly force the US out of the Middle East leaving Israel to fend for itself increasing the probability of a war with Iran.  However, should the US destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, it will greatly decrease the odds of war with Iran.  Most don’t realize this hidden fact, but Iran has off-shored its nuclear program to North Korea where it has been conducting its weapons development unabated.  Should North Korea be allowed to continue its program, Iran by default will gain a nuclear weapons capability.  Should North Korea be stopped, Iran will also be severely set back.

In conclusion, for the first time in decades, the probabilities for various scenarios where nuclear weapons are used are increasing dramatically across the board.  It is alarming and experts are taking note.  In fact, the odds are now so high, it is safe to assess that a nuclear device will most likely be used within the next four years.  If this conclusion doesn’t get your attention, there is probably nothing that can be said to wake you from your brain dead zombielike existence.  Now is the time to get your Plan B ready because events could spiral quickly out of control in the very near future.

By Guiles Hendrik

April 10, 2017

Swamp Dupes President Trump into Expanding US War into Syria

Let me get right to the point.  President Trump is a complete moron if he honestly believes his military advisors are setting him up for success.  I want President Trump to succeed, but until he gets better advisors, he will self-destruct.  By ordering a surge of US military forces into Syria without any long term strategy or plan, he is effectively forcing America into the middle of an ugly civil war that will cost our nation dearly.  Further, by directly entering the Syrian Civil War, President Trump has committed our nation to yet another unnecessary and unconstitutional war without making the case to the American people or obtaining congressional approval.  This won’t just be a massive military mistake; it will be a political disaster.  President Trump has no idea that as the US gets sucked further and further into this war, the failure of “his” war will arm his political enemies with everything they need to ultimately cripple his administration.  By listening to the generals, President Trump has, within a month of taking office, committed the US to an even more disastrous war than his predecessors, which he will lose, and quite possibly destroy his administration.  Brilliant! Read more

The Future of Drone Warfare

Those of you that have followed my site known I have keenly tracked and been a part of autonomous drone development.  The implications of this revolution in warfare are staggering.  All too often I hear some well-intentioned, but woefully ill-informed person state that their “counter-drone” weapon is a shotgun.  Rather than explain how wrong…and in a real life engagement, dead…these people are, I just want to show a video of a recent military drone test, which evaluated swarming technology.  As you watch, keep in mind each one of these drones will one day be able to independently identify, select, target, engage, and kill with precision day or night, from potentially miles away.  Using the swarming technology being developed, a precision strike of drones will eventually be conducted in a manner that independently targets and kills every living thing on a military base simultaneously.  Let that reality sink in for a bit.  Now sit back and watch this clip.

Guiles Hendrik

February 27, 2017

 

Micro Drone Swarm Launched From F/A-18 Super Hornet

 

President Trump’s Misplaced Faith in the Generals

Approximately, one month ago, President Trump tasked the Pentagon with delivering him a plan to defeat the Islamic State or IS.  What Trump failed to understand was the same people he tasked to solve the IS problem, were the same people that in a very large way created it.  His trusted circle of advisors not only are all products of an institution with a heavily flawed system of promotion, but collectively failed to deliver a winning strategy when they were in combatant command roles.  What kind of “solution” to IS does President Trump honestly think he will get from a group of institutionalized generals?  Does anyone want to bet it will be a “solution” that requires more war?  President Trump is literally asking “the swamp” to create his war policy and this is a fool’s errand.  Based on a 100% failure rate of our Generals this century, this is unfortunately another juncture where it is very easy to assess with high certainty that the “solutions” President Trump will be presented will turn into another policy disaster.  Both Presidents Bush and Obama suffered this hard lesson.  President Trump needs to trash these recommendations and look at completely different ways of soliciting policy if he is to defeat IS and make America great again.  This article is my attempt to speak truth to power and warn President Trump of the mistake he is making before it destroys his presidency. Read more

Update: Middle East on Brink of Major War after Saudi Warship Attacked

Again, the news cycle is moving so quickly, no one is able to completely keep up.  However, with all of the focus on executive orders on immigration some major events are slipping by unnoticed.  The take away is that the Middle East is again moving rapidly toward all-out war.  The immigration issue is serious and important, but the war that could potential break out in the Middle East could be staggering.  Here are the most recent highlights with comment:

Yemen in particular has become a flashpoint.  Starting from the top, a unit from SEAL Team Six got mauled badly and lost an operator while conducting a direct action raid on a suspected al-Qaeda facility.  Further, their MV-22 Osprey crashed and was destroyed on the ground.  The base model of a single Osprey costs over $73,000,000 dollars and this was a special operations variant, which comes in closer to one hundred million dollars.  This was in exchange for killing 14 alleged terrorists of at best, medium value, and collecting some information to better identify their network.  This shows that President Trump is less risk averse when it comes to launching our soldiers into combat.  If this becomes a trend, it means much more kinetic warfare and far greater US casualties.  Previous to this raid, attacks in Yemen were almost exclusively being carried out by airstrikes.

If not bad enough, a Saudi Arabian Frigate, which is a warship, was attacked according to the US government, by a small boat laden with explosives.  However, video evidence supports the assessment that believes the ship was hit by a missile supplied by Iran.  Anti-ship missiles have been fired at US Warships in the same area over the last six months.  Further, one man can be heard speaking in an Iranian accent chanting death to America.  If it was indeed a missile that hit the boat, the fact is being downplayed and covered up to prevent outrage in Saudi Arabia that would demand revenge and initiate a war with Iran.  This is not unprecedented in the region.  An advanced ship from the UAE was also recently hit by an Iranian supplied anti-ship missile launched from Yemen and damaged so badly it had to be decommissioned.  However, the UAE never officially acknowledge the attack.

Irrespective of how the attack occurred, the blast appears to have struck the upper portion of the stern of the Saudi ship inflicting serious damage and killing at least two Saudi sailors.  This is a major act of war and is believed to have been launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.  One may say this is the cost of starting an unnecessary war and invading Yemen.  I would agree that it was stupid for Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in Yemen.  However, the Saudis tonight are not discussing whether or not their war was smart.  What they are discussing his how to retaliate.  If it in fact was an attack launched by the Houthis, the missile was undoubtedly supplied by Iran.  Everyone knows this, but the question is if the Kingdom will hold the Houthis and/or the Iranians responsible.  I assess the possibility of Saudi Arabia expanding their war in Yemen as high.  I also see a medium likelihood of Saudi Arabia expanding it to Iran to include indicting any Iranian flagged ship near Yemen.  This will undoubtedly provoke another cycle of violence.  Worst case is Saudi Arabia decides to retaliate directly against Iran, but I assess this as unlikely.  The fact that Saudi Arabia has not said anything about the ban in immigration from seven predominately Muslim countries factors into this situation.  It is highly likely the Saudis will try to lean heavily on the US to take out Iran for them, which brings me to my next point.

Iran test launched a ballistic missile this week in violation of pretty much everything the international community has told Iran it could not do.  Iran became a serial violator of any international dictates since the Obama Administration was in office.  Their transgressions included seizing US Navy vessels and their crews in international waters, providing weapons to attack and kill Americans, holding Americans hostage, developing long range missile technology, and feigning attacks on our warships.  Following precedent, Iran conducted a launch of another ballistic missile and has yet to be “reprimanded” by the new Administration.  Perhaps, Iran thinks it has gotten away with it and President Trump will be a push over.  If so, I believe they have badly miscalculated the new American President.  President Trump in a short amount of time will respond.  How, is the only question.  Trumps retaliatory options range from lodging a diplomatic protest and re-invoking sanctions to launching a nuclear strike.

Yes, I do think President Trump is serious enough he may indeed use nuclear weapons during his time in office to prevent a bloody and costly deployment of ground troops against a country like North Korea or Iran.  Nonetheless, I assess the Administration will come out with a clear warning to Iran, but will stop short of a military strike.  Iran will get one warning, but no more.  However, there is a perfect coalescing of Saudi and US interests with regards to annihilating Iran.  Iran should take this seriously because Saudi Arabia may be on the phone right now with Washington discussing military options for the attack on their ship.  If Trump greenlights retaliation, we could have a major outbreak of war in days.  However, I reiterate, I think right now we will have some clear red lines drawn and preparations made, but the war won’t begin just yet.

In summary, things are getting hotter in the Middle East.  All that is needed is a slight nudge and the entire region could erupt.  I do not see anything getting calmer anytime soon.  In fact, I think we are about to see a major escalation of war in the Middle East.

 

By Guiles Hendrik

January 30, 2017

White House Releases Summary of Trump’s First Week of Action

I have to say, from a business perspective, we are getting a lot for our money.  Trump, to date, has proved to be the hardest working president in a generation…like him or not.  Further, the man has so far done exactly what he promised to do.  Even more amazing is that he is getting it done in hours and days not months and years.  For a man of his age, you have to respect his level of energy and dedication.  It also appears he doesn’t take weekends off.  Sorry bureaucrats…you have to work like the rest of us…and should.  The question is whether he can keep this schedule up.  The news agencies are literally physically breaking down trying to keep up with covering him.  It truly is unprecedented.  Here is the release in its raw form:

THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 27, 2017

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S FIRST WEEK OF ACTION

·         15: Presidential Actions to begin fulfilling his promises to Make America Great Again.

·         11: Diplomatic conversations with foreign leaders to promote an America First foreign policy.

·         4: Members of President Trump’s cabinet sworn into office.

·         3: Stakeholder meetings to get input from both workers and business leaders on jumpstarting job creation.

·         3: Engagements with members of Congress to discuss his agenda.

·         3: Visits to federal agencies committed to protecting our homeland and ensuring our national security.

·         1: Official White House visit by a foreign head of state.

·         1: Reception to honor law enforcement and first responders.

·         1: Proclamation supporting National School Choice week.

·         The President’s team followed through on his commitment to action, by:

o   collaborating with 28 federal agencies and departments on a near daily basis.

o   discussing legislative items with at least 75 House members or their staffs and 35 Senators or their staffs.

o   making initial contact with governors in each state and territory, and having in-depth discussions with 32 governors or their staff.

o   discussing issues with 22 state attorneys general.

o   beginning outreach to our nation’s largest municipalities and tribes.

President Trump Used The Power Of His Office To Follow Through On His Promises To The American People

WITHIN HOURS OF HIS INAUGURATION: President Trump moved to protect Americans from ObamaCare, government regulations, and future bailouts.

·         On the evening of his Inauguration, President Trump sought relief for Americans from the cost burdens of ObamaCare.

·         Through a memorandum issued by the Chief of Staff, all new regulations were frozen to protect job creators from the crush of new government rules on their businesses.

·         President Trump put a stop to a reckless action that would have reduced funding for the Federal Housing Authority after it was bailed out by the taxpayers as recently as 2013.

MONDAY: President Trump fulfilled his promise to immediately address trade and jobs by withdrawing from the harmful Trans-Pacific Partnership, put in place a hiring freeze, and protected taxpayer money from funding abortions overseas.

·         President Trump protected American workers by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

·         To stem the tide of an ever growing government, President Trump put in place a hiring freeze on federal civilian employees.

·         After years of taxpayer money being spent to promote abortions abroad, President Trump reinstated the “Mexico City Policy” to ban such usage.

TUESDAY: President Trump promoted job creation by jumpstarting the construction of two new energy pipelines, requiring the use of American-made materials and equipment in building those pipelines, and reduced the regulatory burden on America’s manufacturing and construction industry.

·         President Trump began the process to finish construction on the Dakota Access Pipeline after a series of delays.

·         After years of delays, President Trump signed a presidential memorandum to revive the Keystone XL pipeline.

·         To make sure Americans benefit from infrastructure projects, the President signed an executive memorandum requiring all new construction and repair of pipelines to use American materials and equipment.

·         President Trump ordered the Commerce Department to streamline and reduce regulations affecting U.S. manufacturing to help bring factories back to America.

·         To jumpstart much needed infrastructure projects, President Trump signed an executive order to speed up the environmental impact review of projects.

WEDNESDAY: President Trump followed through on his pledge to protect America’s borders and end the lack of compliance with immigration laws.

·         Following through on his commitment to protecting the American people, President Trump signed an executive order to improve border security, particularly through the construction of a physical barrier on the southern border.

·         President Trump signed an executive order to ensure that immigration laws are enforced throughout the United States, including halting federal funding for sanctuary cities.

FRIDAY: President Trump followed through on his top priority to keep America safe.

·         President Trump signed an executive order protecting the United States from foreign nationals entering from countries compromised by terrorism, and ensuring a more rigorous vetting process.

·         President Trump issued a presidential memorandum to direct the Secretary of Defense to review our readiness and create plans to rebuild the U.S. military.

President Trump Has Held or Scheduled 11 Conversations With Foreign Leaders To Promote American Interests Around The Globe

·         On Saturday, President Trump spoke with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico and discussed respect for the sovereignty of both nations.

·         On Saturday, President Trump also spoke with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the importance of strong U.S.-Canada ties.

·         On Sunday, President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to discuss opportunities to strengthen relations.

·         On Monday, President Trump spoke with President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi of Egypt, expressing his commitment for a new push in bilateral relations.

·         On Tuesday, President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to strengthen relations and cooperation.

·         Today, President Trump spoke again with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico to discuss bilateral relations, border security and trade.

·         Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of with Japan

·         Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany.

·         Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.

·         Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with President François Hollande of France.

·         Tomorrow, President Trump is scheduled to speak with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia.

Four Of President Trump’s Nominees Were Confirmed By The Senate And Sworn Into Office

·         Last Friday, retired General John Kelly was sworn in as Secretary of Homeland Security.

·         Also last Friday, retired General James Mattis was sworn in as Secretary of Defense.

·         On Monday, former Congressman Mike Pompeo was sworn in as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

·         On Wednesday, former Governor Nikki Haley was sworn in as Ambassador to the United Nations.

Following Through On His Commitment To Job Creation, President Trump Held Stakeholder Meetings With Business And Labor Leaders

·         On Monday, President Trump met with labor leaders to discuss his plans to renegotiate trade deals and put Americans back to work.

·         Later on Monday, President Trump met with manufacturing leaders to discuss how to bring factories and manufacturing jobs back to America.

·         On Tuesday, President Trump met with key industry leaders to discuss how the auto industry can bring back American jobs.

President Trump Held Meetings Or Spoke With Congressional Leaders To Discuss His Agenda

·         On Monday, President Trump hosted Republican and Democrat congressional leaders and chiefs of staff at the White House to discuss the upcoming legislative agenda.

·         On Tuesday, President Trump met with key Senate leaders to discuss his upcoming choice to fill the Supreme Court vacancy.

·         On Thursday, President Trump spoke at the Republican congressional retreat in Philadelphia.

President Trump Spoke At The Headquarters Of The CIA, The Department Of Homeland Security, And The Department Of Defense

·         On Saturday, President Trump spoke at CIA headquarters and told a raucous crowd that he’d have their back as he thanked them for their service to the country.

·         On Wednesday, President Trump visited the Department of Homeland Security to reinforce his strong belief in protecting America’s borders.

·         On Wednesday, President Trump visited the Department of Defense to highlight his commitment to rebuild our military.

President Trump Hosted U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May

·         In hosting his first foreign head of state at the White House, President Trump welcomed Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May.

As One Of His First Actions After Inauguration Day, President Trump Thanked American Law Enforcement And First Responders

·         On Sunday, President Trump held a White House Reception to honor and thank law enforcement and first responders who helped make his Inauguration safe and successful.

President Trump Proclaimed National School Choice Week

·         On Thursday, President Trump renewed his commitment to expand school choice for Americans by proclaiming January 22 through January 28, 2017, as National School Choice Week.

The President’s Team Is Following Through On His Commitment To Action

President Trump’s team has worked to ensure his team is in place at various departments and agencies and working to implement his agenda:

·         The White House Office of Cabinet Affairs made 140 calls to 28 separate federal departments and agencies to collaborate on various issues.

·         Cabinet Affairs personally met with 10 Cabinet nominees.

·         Cabinet Affairs coordinated the swearing in of four cabinet members this week by the Vice President.

President Trump’s team has worked to ensure his legislative agenda is well-received in Congress:

·         The White House Office of Legislative Affairs met or spoke with 110 congressional offices or elected representatives in 75 House and 35 Senate offices.

·         Vice President Pence had several in-person meetings this week on Capitol Hill.

President Trump’s team began outreach to our nation’s states, municipalities, and tribes:

·         The White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs made initial contact with the governor’s offices in all of the states and territories.

·         Intergovernmental Affairs held detailed discussions with the governors or their staff in 32 separate states.

·         Intergovernmental Affairs made initial contact with 22 of the 50 state attorneys general.

·         Intergovernmental Affairs has begun outreach to America’s largest municipalities, such as Los Angeles County and met with the president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

·         Intergovernmental Affairs made contact with the largest tribes in the country and has begun outreach with many leaders.

 

 

President Trump’s First Major International Test could lead to Nuclear War with North Korea

Much has been made of President Trump’s proposed domestic policies as he was sworn in today as the 45th President of the United States.  However, as all eyes are focused on Washington, DC, President Trump’s first major political test may have already materialized.   North Korea has threatened it will conduct an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in violation of international sanctions.  President Trump had already stated that any North Korean launch “won’t happen,” (See: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/world/asia/trump-twitter-north-korea-missiles-china.html?_r=0) so a showdown between the US and North Korea is underway.  How each side acts and responds could literally mean the US engages in a nuclear war with North Korea potentially within a week. Read more

The Price You Will Pay for Trump Dumping the Iran Nuclear Deal

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq.  Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades Support Fight Against IS in Iraq. Source: http://thefederalist-gary.blogspot.com/2015/05/hezbollah-brigades-lead-iraqi.html

The current “deal” with Iran over its nuclear program is better defined as policy capitulation.  To be viable, the deal must have teeth and achieve the endstate desired by the United States.  The current “deal” with Iran is neither and ultimately does not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.  Therefore, a renegotiation of the treaty is necessary to avoid war.  However, war may still be the inevitable result of either doing nothing or trying to force a renegotiation the Iranians are unwilling to engage in.  If Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, there will be a major war irrespective of whether or not the US wants it.  Further, if Iran feels cornered, it may simply refuse to renegotiate anything and regionally retaliate against US pressure leading to a military engagement.  Iran isn’t a paper tiger and has the ability cause the US significant problems if we do drive a hard bargain.  Donald Trump will need to understand this in finite detail or the US will pay in blood and treasure abroad and at home. Read more

SOFREP’s Most Important Story Reveals How US being Tricked into WWIII

Jack Murphy, an author at SOFREP recently had the opportunity to interview Syrian President Assad.  Whether or not you like President Assad, you need to hear Andrew Wilkow’s short interview with Jack about the meeting broadcast on The Wilkow Majority radio show.  Jack may not realize it, but his observations are accurate and completely contradict Washington’s talking points.  To be specific, our government is lying to us about Syria.  If you do not get smart about the real facts on the ground that Jack discusses, you will be tricked into World War III by your propaganda masters.

As I have detailed from the beginning, the war in Syria has been engineered by global elites using terrorist proxies.  (See http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=syria).  These special interests are solely interested in advancing their own agendas and care not for the damage it does to others.  If successful, their strategy will result in disastrous strategic consequences for the region and the US.  Read more

Vice President Joe Biden Announces War with Russia

I am not being dramatic when I say our Vice President just unilaterally declared war on Russia.  In diplomatic circles, the phrase “words mean things” is quite literal.  This week, none other than the second most powerful leader in the world flatly announced the US was going to attack Russia.  Make no mistake, this was not understood by the world as a warning.  This was a declaration.  Now that the “Crazy Joe” Biden has by de facto started World War Three what happens next? Read more

Prepper Update of World Events for Week of October 10, 2016

The following summary of recent world events is decidedly negative.  This is not due to overt pessimism as much as the facts are just plain bad.  In fact, I didn’t even include events like the effects of Hurricane Mathew, the attack on our warship off the coast of Yemen, and the assassination of more police around the US.  The world is not getting any safer and indicators are all pointing to things worsening as we move into late fall and winter.  The following are major events you should be taking note of with short comments.

  • Situation in Syria: Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia continue to pound Aleppo and are nearing a strategic breakthrough.  All actors in Syria recognize that if Assad is able to recapture Aleppo from the Islamic extremists it will be the beginning of the end for Washington’s terrorist proxies in Syria.  As such, there is panic from Doha to Washington.  The terrorist coalition knows that it is now or never for major intervention, which may force the White House to order direct strikes against the Syrian regime, which undoubtedly will be countered by Russian retaliation.  This creates the potential for a rapid outbreak of a major regional war that could go global.  We have effectively arrived at the point I have repeatedly forecasted would occur in Syria where either Moscow or Washington accepts a massive strategic policy defeat or there is a major war…perhaps both.  This is inescapable at this point.  The best case scenario is if the US backs out by aligning with Russia to defeat ISIL and negotiate a peace deal that leaves the regime in place for now.  This is highly unlikely and if Hillary Clinton is elected, all but impossible.
    • I am forecasting that the US will continue to spread false anti-Assad and anti-Russian propaganda to drum up war sentiment in the US to prepare the public for the announcement airstrikes against Syrian military positions.  If the neo-cons within the establishment get their way the air strikes will happen, but there will be an immediate cost to US forces.  Russia will defend its positions on the ground and engage any US forces that directly threaten Russian lives and interests.  In this event, it is possible we will witness the first combat losses of US Fifth Generation Fighters, which Washington is rightfully terrified will occur.  The loss of these jets will show everyone how much superiority the US has lost against countries like China under Obama.  This will jeopardize the multi-billion dollar acquisition program that has been riddled with corruption, failures, and delays.  As such, it is far more likely Washington will lead with cruise missile and drone strikes that are easier to deny and hide if they fail to achieve their objectives, but are also much less likely to achieve decisive results.

Read more

Is the US about to Lose Its Last Foothold in Iraq, Create a Terrorist Caliphate, or Start World War III?

I have been warning about the brewing showdown in Syria and how it could quickly escalate in minutes to the brink of World War III.  A key warning embedded in my analyses was that if not properly managed, the Turks would enter the war against the Kurds, which are the most effective US proxy against ISIL.  I warned that should this occur; the Kurds would be once again left for dead by the US in order to maintain its strategic alliance with the Turks.  This would not only place the US fully in league with the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Nusra Front and other Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions, but would also alienate the Kurds to great detriment of the anti-ISIL effort.  Well, these warnings have gone unheeded and this week we are seeing the first solid open source reports of the factions beginning to turn against the US.  This is a watershed moment that if not immediately mitigated through changes in US strategic policy, will result in the US being completely ejected from Syria and Iraq, the creation of a terrorist caliphate, or World War III.  Those are your policy choices.

Read more

US Back to War with Iraqis AGAIN: All Sides Merge to Attack US Troops

al-Sadr Poster. Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/images/al-sadr_madhi-army_040915-a-3133c-041.jpg

al-Sadr Poster. Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/images/al-sadr_madhi-army_040915-a-3133c-041.jpg

Those of us that fought in Iraq are well aware of the potent militia force, known at the time as the Mahdi Army, controlled by the Iraqi Shiite Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.  Al-Sadr is a leading Shiite figure in Iraq and controls a militia with tens of thousands of fighters.  He is also viewed as the leader of Iran’s proxy force inside of Iraq.  Al-Sadr’s fighters at one point during the Iraq War became one of the most potent enemies facing America and inflicted a considerable amount of casualties on the US.  Now al-Sadr is calling again for his followers to attack US forces in Iraq “fighting” ISIL.  His call for war against the “American Occupiers” signals an ominous policy change in Iraq that will result in dead Americans and could trigger another full scale war with the US. (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-usa-idUSKCN0ZX0XL )

Al-Sadr’s instructions to attack US troops in Iraq will not go unanswered by his followers.  Unlike other groups in Iraq, al-Sadr’s militia is motivated and well-armed, trained, and equipped.  Read more

Iraq Tells Civilians to Flee Fallujah in Advance of Attack

On a short note, I would like to point out a bit of hypocrisy and genius.  Throughout both wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military has been shackled and hamstrung by the necessity to cause no collateral damage.  The theory went that causing any “unnecessary” damage would alienate the population leading to the US losing the war.  Well, at least myself and a few hundred thousand other American servicemen repeatedly tested this and found the theory to be false, but no one at the War College has mentioned it.  In short, worrying about collateral damage only helps the enemy and increases friendly casualties.  Oh, and did I mention we have lost every war that we employed a strategy of limited collateral damage? Read more

While World was Distracted Iran Received the S-300 Missiles that Could Lead to World War III

While the world has been distracted by the quickening of the dissent into global chaos, it was easy to miss a major even that occurred this week.  Russia delivered the first batch of S-300 missiles to Iran.  The missiles were the last component needed to make their previously delivered S-300 Air Defense System fully operational.  This may signal Russia is moving forward with a more aggressive foreign policy to counter the US military’s growing list of provocative actions.  Further, two countries did not miss this major geostrategic event.  Israel and Saudi Arabia have been carefully watching and monitoring Iran for this event, which may prove to be a red line that at least Israel is unwilling to allow Iran to cross.  If true, the clock is about to run out for Israel to take unilateral action or be at the mercy of warming US foreign policy to Iran.  This could mean the outbreak of WWIII.

Make no mistake, the introduction of a fully operational S-300 Air Defense System in Iran alters the balance of power in the Middle East and Israel and Saudi Arabia know it.  It is possible Israel has developed counter measures to the S-300, but the mere presence of the system alone would fundamentally limit Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.  Whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a mutually acceptable deal on the sale and delivery of the system to Iran is unknown, but my guess is Israel protested vigorously.  Both the Netanyahu and Putin know that the air defense sale will significantly strengthen and embolden Iran, which is a sworn enemy of Israel.  Further, Iran is seen as a threat by the rest of the Sunni dominated Gulf-Arab countries.  Therefore, one must ask if this could trigger and war and if so, why Russia would finalize the sale and delivery.

I have previously warned and detailed why an operational S-300 Air Defense System is a major event that could trigger a war in the Middle East that goes global.  (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/08/29/russian-transfer-of-s-300-air-defense-system-may-force-israeli-to-initiate-war-with-iran-before-winter/).  Read more

Global Updates July 12, 2016: World Chaos is Accelerating

It has been some time since I posted.  I apologize as a lot has transpired over the last two weeks.  To make up for lost time, I am going to give you the briefing points you need to know.

  1. South China Sea dispute heats up.  For those of you worried about the potential for WWIII, we just got one step closer today when the UN committee set up to arbitrate the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines ruled in favor of the Philippines.  Right or wrong, China utterly rejected the ruling and reaffirmed its self-perceived right to continue to economically and militarily develop the region as it sees fit.  This sets the stage for China to walk away from the international community to protect its interests while many smaller Pacific nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan will feel emboldened to challenge China.  My prediction is this ruling will only fuel hostilities in the region and set the region on a collision course for war.
  2. The spread of superbugs in the US that are resistant to all known antibiotic treatments continues. For a second time in less than a month, colistin resistant E. Coli has been identified in the US.  The strain in question tested positive for the gene mcr-1, which makes it resistant to colistin, a last resort antibiotic.  Per my previous articles (search antibiotic resistant on the LMS homepage), the spread of resistant bacteria is increasing in frequency and could easily hit a breakout stage in the near future.  Once the mcr-1 resistant gene jumps to other resistant infections such as highly resistant Tuberculosis now being brought into the US by the thousands via illegal immigrants and refugees, it is only a matter of time before a true pandemic sweeps across the globe again.  http://abcnews.go.com/Health/superbug-coli-found-time-us/story?id=40488140
  3. Obama is preparing to use wartime (Global War on Terror) martial law powers to ban and seize firearms for “national security.” Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has been in secret talks with President Obama and other top officials to engineer “gun control” as a national security issue.  The intent, like with nearly every other “Right” under the US Constitution is to suspend the Second Amendment or make it virtually meaningless by using unconstitutional wartime interpretations and rulings of executive powers.  Their plan, like I have detailed repeatedly over the last decade (see: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/12/06/the-problem-isnt-islamic-terrorism-it-is-guns-according-to-emperor-obama/), is progressing on schedule.  Obama and his Leftist goons are intentionally inciting division and violence and fully plan to use the predictable violent outcome to justify “federal government” action and emergency powers that restrict firearms for “national security.”  After the events of Dallas and President Obama’s utterly despicable statements, it is clear that this administration is prepared to act as soon as this summer if more violence can be incited across the nation.
  4. Turkey continues to use “terrorist” attacks within its border as cover for supporting terrorists in Syria that vow to kill Americans. It is critical to understand Turkey has been proven to openly conduct false flag attacks against its own citizens to support President Erdogan’s radical agenda.  Most recently, Turkey has suffered a number of major attacks blamed on both ISIL and Kurdish rebel groups, but that is questionable to say the least.  True or not, Ankara wasted no time using the attacks to justify a Turkish military invasion of Syria.  However, the Turkish military has done nothing to destroy radical Islamic groups operating in Syria.  In fact, a closer analysis clearly shows that the Turkish military has instead been used to resupply radical Islamic groups to include the Al Nusra Front and ISIL/ISIS while smashing US backed Kurdish positions.  Ankara is determined to undermine Syrian President Assad and specifically has used its military to push back Kurdish positions in key blocking positions so that it could resupply radical Islamic fighters on the verge of being routed from Aleppo by Syrian forces.  If Syrian forces retake the lost ground and are again about to liberate Aleppo, expect to see another “terrorist” attack inside Turkey that will be immediately used to justify even greater military incursions into Syria to back radical Islamic extremist groups.  As Syria and Russia continue to mop up ISIL positions and approach Raqqa, I fear this could lead to another direct engagement with Russian forces, which could quickly plunge the region into a major war.
  5. US continues to lose ground in Afghanistan. President Obama signed off on increased troop levels in Afghanistan to help combat the Taliban.  In reality, the US completely ceded most of Afghanistan to the Taliban when Obama pulled the bulk of our forces out and our footprint in Afghanistan is getting more and more untenable.  It has gotten so bad, military logisticians plan up front to lose over 20% of any supplies shipped into Afghanistan because of the Taliban.  Further, Special Forces A-Teams are thinly spread across Afghanistan in a vain attempt to train and advise Afghan forces.  This WILL FAIL because the entire concept of training and advising is at best of limited value and at worst, counterproductive, but our brilliant military strategists are too stupid and indoctrinated to recognize the facts.  If a large contingent of forces are not recommitted under competent leadership to Afghanistan, the Taliban will likely begin to capture and hold major cities by years end and begin to directly threaten Kabul on a sustained basis as early as next summer.
  6. Number of US forces continues to quietly increase in Iraq as undeclared war continues. President Obama signed off on additional troop deployments to Iraq to support on-going efforts to recapture Ramadi, Fallujah, and Mosul from ISIL.  Like I predicted (see articles: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/?s=strategy+in+iraq), none of Obama’s faux “strategy” would prove effective and he would again prove to be a hypocrite and put boots on the ground, which he promised not to do.  To date, none of those cities have been completely liberated.  The long overdue offensive on Mosul is again delayed and most likely also going to fail.  At best, Iraqi forces will blast their way through the city, but will find it impossible to root out ISIL elements because the inhabitants of the city “ARE” ISIL.  The Sunni population in Mosul is hostile to the government in Baghdad and isn’t going to change anytime soon unless everyone in the city is killed.  It is important to note that even at the height of the Iraq War, the US military never fully pacified Mosul and was literally fighting in the city as President Obama unilaterally declared our surrender in Iraq.  The bottom line is this deployment of troops is another vain endeavor that will fail because it is led by incompetents.  No further understanding is necessary to KNOW this ends badly for the US and Iraqis.

By Guiles Hendrik

July 12, 2016

To serve in the military today is to swear an oath to destroy America and serve the global elite

Today, I watched as Secretary of Defense Carter gave “a major announcement” that transgender people will now be allowed to openly serve in the military.  As absurd as this should appear to a rational human, this was their “big” announcement.  I admit that I thought for a second this was going to actually be something legitimate the Department of Defense (DoD) was going to unveil like how to win the wars we have been fighting for over a decade and a half.  Rather than waste your time like Secretary Carter, I am going to get right to the important point.  The military is more concerned with pushing radical political agendas and creating special socially divisive rights for the Democrat’s electoral base than fighting and winning wars.  The only way to fix this problem is to utterly abandon the institution.  Whether or not you took an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic, this is the time to start drawing lines.  Fortunately, this doesn’t require anything beyond quite literally doing nothing.  The “most powerful military in the world” can literally be destroyed without firing a shot.  To reign in and stop the DoD we must starve it of human and financial capital until such time that it begs for our return on our terms.  My thesis argument is that only by utterly rejecting the military establishment by not serving or funding it can we fix it.  Read more

Age of the Super Bug has dawned: Are you ready for a bio-catastrophe?

Why should you care about what I am writing about today?  “Each year in the United States, at least 2 million people become infected with bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics and at least 23,000 people die each year as a direct result of these infections.” (Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)  This is about to get potentially unimaginably worse.

Back in 2013, I wrote an article entitled, “Head of CDC Says It’s Time to Sound the Alarm on Antibiotic Resistant Superbugs” http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/tag/incurable/.  In it, I explained that we were reaching a point where the spread of antibiotic resistant diseases would fundamentally alter our lives.  In a world of resistant bacteria, even simple infections from cuts and scrapes will be deadly.  Modern surgical medicine will be highly risky to impossible because of the untreatable bacterial infections.  Perhaps most terrifying, the resistance will spread to previously eliminated diseases like Tuberculosis and allow for them to reemerge in a much more lethal form.  I warned that if new antibiotics were not developed, we could soon be facing a time where cities become nothing more than death zones.  Now, only three years later, we have crossed a major milestone of the worst case with the confirmed emergence of bacteria in the US resistant to the last resort antibiotic treatments.

Let me be clear.  The US government is in panic mode behind the scenes.  Although, government officials are sounding the “stay calm,” doctors and infectious disease specialists are much blunter about the dire implications of bacteria that are totally resistant to our treatments of last resort.  Lena H. Sun writes in the Washington Post; “For infectious-disease experts, the nightmare scenario is for the gene to spread to bacteria that are now susceptible only to colistin.  That would make them invincible to any antibiotic, unstoppable by the most lifesaving drugs of modern medicine.” (Source:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/how-these-biomedical-detectives-identified-the-dreaded-new-superbug-in-us/2016/06/06/96ac8922-2bda-11e6-9de3-6e6e7a14000c_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_most-draw6)  As soon as the resistance is spread to other bacteria and they become more wide spread, the consequences could be catastrophic.  It is so serious; it isn’t a coincidence the discovery was made by the Department of Defense (DoD).  The DoD has conducted research into biological weapons for decades and views the development of last resort resistant bacteria in the US like a nuclear weapon about to be unleashed.  In fact, it actually could be far worse.  Read more

Memorial Day Weekend Message: How to truly help veterans according to veterans

I hit my saturation point with the Memorial Day weekend lip service and memorials to those who died “fighting for our freedoms.”  We can argue about previous generations, but the US has not fought a war for “our freedoms” in my lifetime.  The nebulous “War on Terror” has certainly not been about expanding or protecting freedoms and would have been better described as a “War on American Freedoms and Liberties.”  Not a single freedom has been expanded or “protected” by this war.  However, nearly every “right” provided by the Constitution of the United States has been in one form or another attacked, eroded, or outright ignored and flagrantly violated.  As such, today I am going to briefly discuss how you can honor your veterans and how to really help them if you are so inclined.

I am a multi-tour combat veteran and I have had friends wounded and killed in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Telling the truth, identifying the real enemies, and not parroting patriotic feel good nonsense does not diminish their personal sacrifices or honor.  In fact, I speak for many veterans when I say that we are sick of the rhetoric and would much rather hear substantive discussions about issues that matter.  For example, why after a decade and a half can’t we get decent care at a veterans’ hospital and why can’t all of NATO to include the US, not win a war against some Pashtun villagers.  The military service members I served with are appalled by the political lies and deceit and want justice for those killed and wounded, not lip service.  Stop talking about the ridiculous notion we somehow “liberated” Iraq and brought democracy to the people.  Everyone with even the most basic knowledge of foreign affairs now knows the invasion of Iraq was completely illegal.  The true culprits behind 9/11 and the Iraq War were hiding in the Saudi and US governments and in every lobbying firm and think tank in between.  We want to know why not one of these enemies and traitors respectively were held accountable.  Further, we want to know why general officers were not resigning in mass protest of an obviously flawed and unsalvageable war strategy.  If the “strategy” was so good, why hasn’t it worked?  If it is a viable strategy, then why haven’t we fired the generals that have completely failed to achieve a decisive victory?  If you want to help veterans, demand the truth and accountability while dispensing with the patriotic rhetoric.    Read more

White House Planning to Send Weapons to Libya: What could go wrong?

Our leadership at the White House, CIA, Pentagon, and State Department are unbelievably incompetent, reckless, and corrupt.  I just can’t make this up.  In another example of the absolute rampant stupidity emanating from the White House and Department of Defense, it appears US policy is now to conduct another unsanctioned military invasion of Libya ostensibly to fight ISIS.  Apparently, the US is preparing to provide weapons and training to support select Libyan forces to help them repel the radical Islamic forces Washington previously backed in Libya in 2011.  You read that correctly.  Just like in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, the US is now arming factions to fight the very same radical Islamic jihadist factions it armed and supported just five years prior.  Watching this train wreck of policy unfold, I can only sarcastically ask, “what could go wrong?”  Read more