The last few months of the Syrian Civil War have been a very significant transitional period. Contrary to what many may think, this period has the potential to be far more dangerous than the last few years of conflict and could result in a far bigger regional war if any missteps occur. For the US to remain in Syria, it is almost totally reliant on its current proxy, the Kurdish SDF. Let me be clear, without the Kurds, the US strategy in Syria is dead. The US has neither the manpower nor the money to play counterinsurgent in Syria. Russia and the Syrian Government have recognized this and over the last month they have executed a remarkably brilliant strategy to shatter this alliance. In fact, the US is now faced with a no win situation. Option A is the US backs the SDF and destroys its alliance with Turkey. Turkey, a strategic NATO ally, will move into the Russian sphere. Further, US support for the SDF will potentially cause a far broader conflict that could pit NATO allies against each other. Ultimately, this will end up with lots of dead Kurds and the US pulling out of Syria (Russia laughs). Option B is the US backs the Turks against the SDF. This will leave the Kurds with no choice, but to ally with Syrian government and Russia forces for survival. This will also revive radical Islamic elements loyal to al Qaeda such as the rebel groups previously fighting under the Al-Nusra Front banner, which Turkey continues to support in Idlib. Of course regime support for the Kurds will come at a price, which will be removing all support and protection of US forces in Syria (Russia laughs). You may ask if there is an Option C. The answer is yes, but it isn’t pretty and I will discuss it later in this article. Just understand that no matter what, the Kurds will have to find a new ally, which you can guarantee will be hostile to the US. As such, the US position is becoming increasingly untenable and one must ask, “Is the Syrian Endgame in Sight?”
I hate to say it…again. I told you so. I have warned for years that the failure of the US to engage early and often with the Turks regarding the necessity of using the Kurds to fight ISIS was going to be a big problem. The US ignored that issue and is now facing a policy disaster. President Trump is a fool if he thinks he can work out a deal with Turkey. Turkey has become a radical totalitarian Islamic regime and will not stop its offensive in Syria until it has effectively committed genocide against the remaining Kurds. The US can neither afford to support nor not support the Kurds and will have to cede territory or risk being drawn into a far bigger conflict. Of course Turkey is smart and will claim to only be conducting limited incursions into Syria, which may be true because it will use its radical Islamic proxies now being allowed out of Idlib by the Russians to do most of the dirty work. In exchange for Russia allowing the anti-Assad rebels out of Idlib to be used to wipe out the Kurds, Turkey will then allow the combined Russian, Iranian, and Syrian forces to eliminate the remaining Islamist elements still alive after fighting the Kurds. Remember, Turkey is far more worried about the Kurds than radical jihadists and is more than willing to let them eliminate each other. This will leave regime forces in control of the entirety of Syria and bring the civil war to a close.
I wish it were that simple. Does anyone think for a second that Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US are willing to allow Iran to consolidate its victories in both Iraq and Syria? Not a chance. That means Option C. As I mentioned previously, Option C is really ugly and the worst case scenario I have also warned was coming for years. As much as I pray the US recognizes Syria is a no win situation and hands it over to Assad in exchange for some reasonable political concessions, I don’t see it happening. There is just too much special interest influence in Trump’s Administration for him to get the right message and act appropriately. President Trump simply doesn’t understand the situation well enough and must rely on the “advice” of the bought off actors he has surrounded himself with of late. As a result, I now place the odds of a broader war breaking out that is designed to smash Iran, which was the original intent all along, at near 90%. The only reason I don’t give it 100% is because the US is also very tied down in Asia facing off against North Korea and the Chinese. The US doesn’t have the bandwidth to fight two unnecessary and devastating wars. If the globalists deem Asia as the bigger fish, it is still possible that the US will give up ground in the Middle East and allow Israel and an alliance of Arab countries to fight Iran. If you are interested in how this will play out, search “Israel” on the LMS webpage or go to http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2012/08/18/the-war-with-iran-has-begun-israels-battle-plan-for-iran/ to read Israel’s war plan. If you have any doubt about the accuracy, note that the article on Israel’s battle plan was written in 2012 and has played out almost exactly as described…so much so it is eerie. Now that Syria has been reduced, Israel is ready to launch Phase III of its war plan. The only modification is that with the unexpected election and strong support of President Trump, Israel may just opt for an overt strike using the same battle plan minus the deniability. Either way, prepare for a lot of chaos to break out this year.
By Guiles Hendrik
February 19, 2018
