While the world has been distracted by the quickening of the dissent into global chaos, it was easy to miss a major even that occurred this week. Russia delivered the first batch of S-300 missiles to Iran. The missiles were the last component needed to make their previously delivered S-300 Air Defense System fully operational. This may signal Russia is moving forward with a more aggressive foreign policy to counter the US military’s growing list of provocative actions. Further, two countries did not miss this major geostrategic event. Israel and Saudi Arabia have been carefully watching and monitoring Iran for this event, which may prove to be a red line that at least Israel is unwilling to allow Iran to cross. If true, the clock is about to run out for Israel to take unilateral action or be at the mercy of warming US foreign policy to Iran. This could mean the outbreak of WWIII.
Make no mistake, the introduction of a fully operational S-300 Air Defense System in Iran alters the balance of power in the Middle East and Israel and Saudi Arabia know it. It is possible Israel has developed counter measures to the S-300, but the mere presence of the system alone would fundamentally limit Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. Whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a mutually acceptable deal on the sale and delivery of the system to Iran is unknown, but my guess is Israel protested vigorously. Both the Netanyahu and Putin know that the air defense sale will significantly strengthen and embolden Iran, which is a sworn enemy of Israel. Further, Iran is seen as a threat by the rest of the Sunni dominated Gulf-Arab countries. Therefore, one must ask if this could trigger and war and if so, why Russia would finalize the sale and delivery.
I have previously warned and detailed why an operational S-300 Air Defense System is a major event that could trigger a war in the Middle East that goes global. (See: http://www.lastminutesurvival.com/2015/08/29/russian-transfer-of-s-300-air-defense-system-may-force-israeli-to-initiate-war-with-iran-before-winter/). Historically, for better or worse, Israel could rely on the US to come to its defense. This proved to be a stabilizing force throughout the Cold War. However, that equation no longer exists. President Obama has effectively destroyed the US-Israeli partnership and now Israel must evaluate its military strategy purely on its ability to unilaterally provide for its protection. I should note this is the worst policy Washington could have chosen. Due to this strategic reality, the need for pre-emptive military action becomes much more important to Israel, since geographically speaking, it does not have strategic depth. Up until now, Israel still enjoyed some ability to launch air strikes against Iran with a reasonable expectation of achieving limited goals. The introduction of the S-300 effectively neutralizes Israel’s air superiority over Iran. Iran knows this so you can expect it to become much bolder in the coming months as the system is armed with the missiles and becomes fully operational. Israel also knows this and views Iran, post the Iran Nuclear Deal, as proceeding unhindered toward the development and weaponization of a nuclear bomb. Iran’s Air Defense Commander, Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, stated that “all” of the S-300 systems should be operational by March 2017. As such, Israel is in the final weeks and months of having to make a strategic decision that will have global repercussions. Israel either conventionally strikes Iran now before the system is fully operational or waits and loses the ability to leverage the superiority of its air force. If Israel waits and must unilaterally act against Iran, its only viable and effective strategy will be to strike using tactical nuclear warheads mounted on missiles launched from its German made Dolphin submarines.
From the American perspective, it would make sense for Israel to accept risk and wait for the new US president to be elected to assess whether or not relations will improve. This could be a significant benefit to Israel or disaster. If Hillary is dominating the polls, all bets are off. Hillary has already made it clear she will continue Obama’s policies of supporting Israel’s enemies. If Donald Trump is dominating the polls, Israel will likely hold its fire since Trump has already said he would scrap the nuclear deal with Iran and renegotiate it. If it is a tossup, I believe the consequences of inaction may be viewed by a now harder line Israeli government as too big a risk. In that case, if Israeli intelligence indicates Iran is approaching the development of a breakout nuclear weapons capability, then Israel will act. The war that will be initiated will be catastrophic.
This leaves the remaining question why Russia would toss the match into the can of gasoline. Russia has delayed the delivery of the S-300 system to Iran for years so why did it deliver the missiles now? Although the Iran Nuclear Deal Sellout given away by Secretary of State John Kerry under President Obama’s orders effectively greenlighted arms sales to Iran to resume, Russia was solely in control of the decision to provide the weapons or not. I believe that in light of anti-Russian rhetoric and aggressive military actions by the US, Russia has made a strategic decision to light a fuse that will set off a chain of events that so badly damage the US, it will render America incapable of presenting a threat to Russia.
Russia isn’t stupid and would much rather have good relations with the US, but the American leadership is just too controlled by the globalists instigating a war with Russia. Sadly, I believe Russian leadership has correctly assessed the political landscape in Washington as hostile. Even if Donald Trump is elected, it remains to be seen if Trump takes a status quo hostile stance toward Russia. This is forcing Putin’s hand. By allowing the delivery of the S-300 missiles, Putin knows this will likely embolden Iran just enough and scare the rest of the Middle East just enough that it pushes the entire region over the edge into a war given a little bit of time. This will do a couple things. Without any doubt, it will suck the US into another war it can’t afford and effectively cause it to financially collapse. NATO will become a non-entity. This will mitigate any direct military threat from Washington for at least a decade, but perhaps a generation. It will also remove most of Russia’s competition in the oil market while simultaneously spiking prices before they plummet in what will likely be a global economic collapse. Being that Russia has already collapsed, reorganized, and survived what amounts to probably the worst of the economic storm brought on by low oil prices and sanctions; it will be well positioned to weather the collapse. The US will not and will be devastated. I want to point out there are off ramps still available to mend the ties between the US and Russia and I pray they are embraced. However, respective of the Middle East, the fuse is now lit and come Donald Trump or not, I see no real conclusion to this cycle of events without a major war in the Middle East that cripples the US.
By Guiles Hendrik
July 19, 2016
